Trump Tariffs Have Not Increased Vehicle Costs, and Average Transaction Prices Remain Below Biden-Era Peaks - Here Is the Hard Data and a Forecast of What’s To Come

The latest data show that average transaction prices have barely budged since President Trump enacted new tariffs on imported automobiles, automobile parts, steel, and aluminum back in early March.  Now, more than two months since this action was taken, we have a pair of month-end average transaction price (ATP) reports to which we can look to observe any changes. The one-line summary? New vehicle prices remain below Biden-era peaks, and many brands have seen short-term price declines, not increases, since the changes to import duties.

Need an example of the lamestream media fear-mongering stories we mention in our teaser above. Check out CNN's March story titled, "Car prices will surge by thousands of dollars because of Trump’s tariffs. It’ll happen before you expect it." The story predicted price hikes of as much as five figures and said “April 3rd seems a bit like a doomsday if those tariffs on Mexico and Canada go through.”

Our summary is in nominal dollars, not adjusted for inflation unless otherwise stated. If one adjusts for the changing value of the dollar, using real dollars, vehicle prices today are lower than at any point in President Biden's term. 

Month of April ATP Data Summary
You can read our full month of April ATP summary at our story titled “April 2025 Vehicle Prices Rose Less Than A Typical Year-Over-Year Increase, and Despite Tariffs, the Largest Vehicle Segment of Compact Crossover SUVs Declined In Average Transaction Price.”

Updated Month of May ATP Data Summary
The latest data set available brings the ATP information forward to the end of May. Thus, two months and three weeks after the new tariffs went into effect. Cox Automotive summarized the data, which they diligently compile each and every month. The report begins, “New-vehicle ATP held steady in May at $48,799, virtually unchanged from the revised April ATP of $48,811. Compared to May 2024, new-vehicle transaction prices were higher by 1.0%.”

Here are some facts in bullet points to reinforce and expand on that brief summary:
-Vehicle ATP did not rise month to month (From end of April to end of May)
-Vehicle ATP rose by about 1% from last April, well below the rate of inflation
-When the dollar is corrected for inflation, vehicle prices are lower now than at any point during President Biden's term. 
-Many brands saw a decline in average prices in May

Two Most Important Segments - Compact Crossovers/SUVs and Pickup Trucks 
Let’s now explore the two segments that are the largest and arguably the most important in America. Those are compact SUVs/crossovers like the Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V, and full-size pickup trucks. No other category of vehicles comes close to either of these in terms of volume or widespread use by Americans.

Compact Crossover/SUV average prices did not change. The ATP rose 0.1% year over year and .2% month over month. These values are within the margin of error of data like this. This means that if you adjust for inflation, Americans are paying less today for the most popular models that homeowners purchase than they did in 2024. The ATP for this segment is now $36,515

Full-size pickup truck ATP declined by 1.1% year over year, and went down 0.1% month to month. The ATP for this important segment is now $64,608, and this time last year it was over $65K. Why is this segment so important? For many reasons, but primarily because it is a very large portion of overall sales, it is the vehicle type most often purchased for use in business, and is a vehicle type used by all types of fleets, such as your local DPW and police. All pickups already had a 25% import duty instituted by (Democrat) President Johnson and kept in place by every President, including Biden, since the early 1960s. It’s the reason why virtually all pickups in America are made in North America.

Brands That Saw Declines In ATP
In April, many brands saw their overall ATP decline. You can view the full list at our link in the first paragraph. In May, seven brands saw a year-over-year decline in ATPs. That includes Acura, Chrysler, Ford, Hyundai, Jeep, Kia, Ram, and Tesla. Jeep had the largest price decline at 10.8%.

Brands That Saw a Change Lower Than the Rate of Inflation
In May, the rate of inflation (annual) was 2.3%. 14 brands sold in America had ATP changes that were lower than the rate of inflation. Brands that fall into this category are diverse. They include Toyota, Subaru, Mercedes-Benz, Lexus BMW, MINI, and Jaguar. As you can see, there is no correlation between “import brands” and price changes.

ATP In May During President Biden’s Term
Here is a comparison to the ATP in May During President Biden’s Term vs. the ATP in President Trump’s second (current) term. These are ATPs in dollars of that moment, not adjusted for inflation. 
President Trump’s Term - Now = $48,799
May 2024 (Biden) = $48,319
May 2023 (Biden) = $48,830
May 2022 (Biden) = $47,135
May 2021 (Biden) = $41,534

The ATPs above were supplied in various Cox Automotive monthly reports. Note that these ATPs are all from the same source.

As you can see, the highest reported ATP was during the third year of President Biden’s term. Adjust those numbers for the value of today’s dollar, and prices of vehicles were higher during every year of President Biden’s term. The inflation-adjusted value of $41,534 (nominal dollars) in May of 2021 equals $49,598 in today’s (real) dollars.

Used Car Prices
All of the information above is for new vehicles. We don't wish to dilute the story’s scope too much, but iSeeCars has just released their averages of used car prices. The summary of the report is “The average 1- to 5-year-old used car costs $32,317, up 2% ($630) from a year ago.” So, given the current rate of inflation, used vehicles are rising in price slowly, and at a rate lower than inflation.

What Will Happen In Months To Come (Inventory)
It’s not possible to predict what prices will be in the months to come. The reason is that we are presently in a period of U.S.-global trade negotiations. We can look at this month, though. Inventory is still strong on many mainstream automakers’ lots. Tesla has an overcapacity of inventory right now and makes two of the top-selling vehicles. In the latest inventory report, fifteen brands had about a three-month supply of vehicles on hand. The average supply was 66 days. This is about normal, though inventory has been dropping slightly. Likely due to the special deals being offered and (smart) shoppers trying to buy before possible increases due to tariffs.

Many brands are still slashing prices. Ford has extended its employee pricing for all plan through the end of June. Kia just announced its EV9 flagship’s 2026 model year prices, and they are down (not up) from 2025 for top trims. The base trim stayed at the same price.

Biden-Era Price Spikes
During the Biden administration, average transaction prices spiked. Here is a summary of the changes during those four years. The chart above illustrates the ATPs during President Biden’s term. 

Summary - Buy Now Or Roll the Dice
In summary, when adjusted for the change of value of the U.S. Dollar, vehicle prices are lower today than at any point in President Biden’s term. The ATP of many brands has fallen since new tariffs were announced. Some brands are lowering prices. If you plan to buy a new vehicle in 2025, waiting until after June seems like betting against the house. Why gamble? 

Do you think inflation-adjusted vehicle prices will be higher at the end of this year than at the same point during President Biden's term? Tell us in the comments below. 

John Goreham is a long-standing member of the New England Motor Press Association and an expert vehicle tester. John completed an engineering program with a focus on electric vehicles, followed by two decades of work in high-tech, biopharma, and the automotive supply chain before becoming a news contributor. He is a member of the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE int). In addition to his eleven years of work at Torque News, John has published thousands of articles and reviews at American news outlets. He is known for offering unfiltered opinions on vehicle topics. You can connect with John on LinkedIn and follow his work on his personal X channel or on our X channel. Please note that stories carrying John's by-line are never AI-generated, but he does employ grammar and punctuation software when proofreading and he also uses image generation tools. 

Images by John Goreham. Ford dealer inventory image taken June 2025.