3 Signs That EVs Will Remain Stalled at Around 6% Market Share Into Late 2026 - Part 2 of 2

Electric vehicle market share in the United States dropped off a cliff last fall. After about two years at around 8% annual EV market share, EV adoption slowed and market share slipped back toward the 6% level last seen in late 2022. Heading into month seven since the “free money for EVs” dried up when the lease-friendly federal tax incentives ended, some stubborn challenges still loom over the market. Here is our glass-half-empty view of the EV market. You can find an opposing viewpoint that offers three reasons why EVs may pick up speed in our accompanying story at this link.

1. The Tesla Model Y and Model 3 Are All That Really Matter
All over social media and in the EV promotional publications, people pretend that it matters what Hyundai, Kia, Toyota, Subaru, Nissan, GM, and other brands do with EVs in 2026. It really doesn’t. Only two models matter when you look at the math. The Tesla twins, Model Y and Model 3, own about 61% of the U.S. EV market share right now. A few of the other brands could double their EV sales, and it won’t add up to a hill of beans. Need Proof? Toyota had a fantastic January and February of EV deliveries, and the company had a model that leapfrogged over a bunch of “best-sellers.” Nothing changed for EV market share, though, because the Tesla Model Y had slightly below-average monthly deliveries. That negated the Toyota bZ's good performance. Factually, all that really matters in the U.S. EV market in terms of EV market share of new vehicles is what happens with Tesla’s Model Y and Model 3. If they do well, the share is helped. If they do poorly, nothing the other brands do will matter. It's easy math. Other brands need to make and deliver 10X their current EV output just to be in the conversation.

2. EV Makers Have Canceled So Many U.S. Market EVs We’ve Lost Count
Remember that “Wave of new EVs coming soon!?” Yeah, that’s a bunch of made-up nonsense. Ram, Kia, Ford, Honda, Acura, and other brands have all canceled EV models they were planning to launch in the U.S. this year. Those are just the all-new ones that were about to drop. Separately, Tesla, Ford, Nissan, Kia, Hyundai, GM, Mercedes, and Volvo all cancelled existing models in the past year. There is no “wave of new EVs” coming. There is a strong undertow of canceled models pulling sales backwards. This week alone, there have been five EVs canceled. Including the Volvo EX30, which virtually every publication said would be game-changing and affordable. It proved to be neither. Consumer Reports called Volvo’s over-hyped EX30 a Worst Pick of 2025.

3. The Boat-Load of EV Leases About to End May Backfire Badly On New EV Sales
Above, we offered one scenario where the coming surge of EV lease endings may help bump up new EV sales. There is also another possibility. The big surge in EV lease terminations will put a lot of EVs into the already very depressed used EV market. That will mean they will have lower auction prices, and then the sale prices to consumers in the used EV market will be very attractive. Maybe too good to pass up. Our own Noah Washington did a great story explaining how, so far, manufacturers have not been adjusting the buy-out prices of existing leases. If they decide to lower those buy-out prices and sell the EVs to existing owners - watch out! That cold be a dagger to the heart for new EV sales.

EVs generally have long powertrain warranties. Used EVs should be a no-brainer, particularly since a lot of them will be great modern EVs like the 2022-2023 Model Y, Model 3, Mustang Mach-E, and Ioniq 5. The smart money will be looking for used EVs this spring and summer. The deals are going to be killer.

We hope you find this story factual. We have an accompanying story with three positive signs for EVs. We hope you will check out that story as well.

Which view do you think has more merit? Will EV market share rise or fall over the coming months? Tell us your thoughts in the comments below. 
 

John Goreham is a 14-year veteran of Torque News. An accomplished writer and a long-time expert in vehicle testing, Goreham also serves as the Vice President of the New England Motor Press Association and has a growing social media presence. He’s also a 10-year staff writer and community moderator for Car Talk. Goreham holds a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering and an undergraduate Certificate in Marketing. In addition to vehicle and tire content, he offers deep dives into market trends and opinion pieces. You can follow John Goreham on X and TikTok, and connect with him on LinkedIn.