EV Production and Sales in Germany
The best selling car in Germany for November, 2022, was the Model 3. For Norway, France, and the U.K. was the Model Y. For December in Norway, it was the Tesla Model Y. Tesla vehicles are achieving European sales records month after month in Q4, 2022. There is a 70% increase in deliveries year over year.
Tesla appears to be targeting Germany more than anywhere else. They are more expensive in Germany as opposed to other countries, but they are selling very well in Germany.
The German Federal Motor Vehicle Office has released the data for December, 2022. Tesla delivered 17,500 vehicles. This is almost as much as BMW and Audi. How many vehicles does Tesla need to deliver next year to match these companies? Most likely, Tesla will win this battle.
Tesla is aiming to produce 5,000 cars per week in Germany, which should get Tesla to 1 million vehicles per year, with an eventual end goal of 2 to 3 million vehicles per year. Tesla is going to need their generation 3 vehicle to get there.
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Production and Sales Going Forward
There is a new factory in Germany that is probably 2 years away from getting to the 2 million per year milestone. In Giga Shanghai, the run rate is about 1 million vehicles per year and is the most productive EV manufacturing factory in the world.
The current production run rate for EVs is about 210,000 per year. In 2022, Tesla delivered 70,000 vehicles total in Germany. This was a 76.2% growth rate compared to 2021. Giga Berlin is a big reason for this.
Many people think Tesla is dead and they are going to go bankrupt. This is something that seems to happen over and over - people think Tesla will die. Tesla delivered 17,500 vehicles in December, 2022. If they maintain this rate, they will deliver 210,000 in 2023. This assumes no further ramping of vehicles.
Will Tesla still be able to achieve this run rate? Tesla is producing 3,000 vehicles per weak in Giga Berlin. Once they get this number higher, the cost will go down and Tesla will be able to reduce their prices due to economies of scale.
I think Tesla can easily sell 210,000 vehicles in 2023. Why can't they sell more? I think they are simply limited by how many vehicles they can produce at Giga Berlin. That's the factor. Tesla can adjust the price to whatever is needed to meet demand as well.
To increase to 210,000 vehicles sold in Germany, that means Tesla would have increased its deliveries by about 300%.
Will Tesla deliver 210,000 vehicles in Germany for 2023?
In Related News: Tesla Model Y to Lead European Car Market
For more information, see this video from The Electric Viking:
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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.