Tesla's 2nd and 3rd generation platforms
In 8 weeks, we are going to have Tesla investor day, 2023 where Tesla is going to go over key things related to its business. These are:
* The most advanced production line
* Long term expansion plans
* The generation 3 platform
* Capital allocation and other subjects
This will all take place at Giga Texas. Tesla's generation 2 is its Model Y and Model 3 vehicles. These started production in 2017 and 2019 respectively. Other companies still can't compete with Tesla's generation 2 platform in all areas of performance, range, and cost.
Cost is the most important metric as that determines profitability and the sustainability of a company. Yet, Tesla isn't going to stop with its generation 2 platform. It is going to continue on with its generation 3 platform.
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What will the 3rd generation platform be?
Tesla's generation 3 platform will be half the cost and half the effort in order to produce vehicles compared to Tesla's generation 2.
Tesla is able to produce a Model 3 in 10 hours -vs- Volkswagen producing a vehicle in 30 hours. Now we have the generation 3 platform which will halve the cost and make a vehicle in 5 hours. If other auto makers aren't able to keep up with this, they are going to eventually go out of business.
This is how Tesla will potentially get to 20 million cars a year. That may seem unrealistic at this point, but certainly, 10 million cars a year is doable with the generation 3 platform. The cost won't be $30,000, it will be $20,000 instead.
I believe the generation 3 platform is going to have 2 primary vehicles:
The Robotaxi vehicle will not having a steering wheel, pedals, or much of the controls that are in other Tesla vehicles. Its primary purpose will be transporting people from point A to point B. I believe this will be a very light vehicle and won't have many of the extra features the Model 3 and Model Y have.
The compact vehicle will be like a Model 3, but smaller. I believe it will be a 2 door vehicle, much shorter than the Model 3 and be more like the size of a Toyota Corolla. Tesla doesn't need to make it 4 door. Tesla doesn't even need to make a frunk on the car. Space isn't the concern with this vehicle - affordability and cost is.
Each of these vehicles will have cameras and all the safety features that Tesla vehicles enjoy today, but they'll just be produced much quicker and at a much cheaper cost. Tesla is smart to do this investor day in order to help ease investor concerns about future products and concerns of competition.
Nobody else is doing the giga castings with structural battery packs and using LFP batteries like Tesla is. This is going to be massive efficiency at a massive scale. I expect the generation 3 vehicles to reach a volume of 5 million vehicles sold per year.
And then, there will eventually be the generation 4 vehicles, like the Model 1. Half the cost, half the production time, again...
What do you think of Tesla's generation 3 vehicles? Will this get Tesla to 10 million vehicles per year?
For more information, see this video from The Electric Viking:
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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.