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With gas under $3.99 in most states and the average dropping daily, gas will likely fall below the Biden-era average of $3.60 by the midterm elections.
A gasoline station sign in Greenville, NH shows gas at well under $4/gallon
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By: John Goreham

Gasoline prices are dropping, and dropping fast. We looked closely at AAA’s data today and discovered that the price is now under $3.99 per gallon for regular unleaded in a majority of states. By our count, 26 states are currently enjoying regular unleaded gas prices of $3.99 or lower. Three more states are on the bubble, within a few cents of $3.99.

AAA reports that the national average for gasoline has been in freefall now for three straight weeks as the world adjusted to life with an impassable Straight of Hormuz. With an agreement to end conflict in the region progressing, and the promise of the Gulf opening to commercial traffic this week, national average gas prices look to be under $3.99 on average as soon as this weekend.

Torque News spoke with AAA Northeast's Senior Manager Traffic Safety, who told us, "Drivers are seeing some welcome relief, with gas prices dropping nearly 50 cents over the past month." Mr. Paul went on to add this perspective:

That kind of decline can add up. For example, on a 500-mile trip in a vehicle getting 25 miles per gallon, a driver would use about 20 gallons of fuel, putting nearly $10 back in their pocket compared to just a few weeks ago.

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Gas price map courtesy of AAA

AAA June 17th data shows that gasoline prices have dropped by about 11 cents over the past week. Over the past few days, that pace has accelerated, and gas dropped by about two cents overnight this week from Tuesday to Wednesday. Drivers filling up this weekend should find prices they have not seen since spring, and if AAA's current pace holds, the national average will cross the $3.99/gallon mark within days.

One interesting fact we took from AAA’s June 11th summary on the state of gasoline prices is that “gas prices typically peak around this time of year.” Given that this is the time of year when gas prices are typically rising, but that they are currently falling rapidly, it indicates that the market is looking to return to a lower average price point. 

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While gas prices by state are not strictly segregated by Blue (Democrat) vs. Red (Republican), a glance at the average price map clearly shows that the states with the highest gas prices are primarily Democratic-controlled states. Ironically, AAA uses red to highlight high gas prices and blue to indicate low gas prices. California, of course, leads all states with a national average of $5.68 per gallon. A self-inflicted wound if ever there was one, and no accident. California combines a desire for novel formulations not available in America, policies that make California gas refining untenable, very high gas taxes, and a soft EV mandate to arrive at a fuel price that is dramatically higher than that of other states.

While California drivers suffer self-imposed gas prices closer to six dollars than five, in Indiana, gas is widely available for under $2.99 per gallon. We turned to Gas Buddy for a look at which stations are reporting the best gas prices. Gas Buddy members have reported that at the Lassus Handy Dandy in Warsaw, located at 702 S Buffalo St., gas is presently selling for $2.85/gallon. Costco locations in Avon and Indianapolis are reportedly selling Top Tier gas to members at $2.89.

America's gas prices in one chart by FRED and U.S. Dept. of Labor Statistics

Gasoline’s historic peak in prices did not occur over the past 110 days due to the recent conflict in the Middle East. Rather, America’s peak of gasoline prices occurred during the Biden Administration. Gas was priced over $4.00 per gallon from late February to late August of 2022, and was over $5.00 per gallon for a part of that six-month period. America’s choice to join its NATO partners in support of Ukraine in its war with Russia was the primary driver of America’s largest gas spike in history, but there were three converging factors, including:
-Energy sector sanctions against Russia, the aggressor in the conflict.
-Reduced refining capacity in America leading up to the period
-Pandemic-related swings in fuel usage.

Seven months ago, Torque News highlighted that gasoline was widely available for under $2.00 per gallon in America. We don't expect prices to return to that point in the short term, but we predict Americans will see gas prices well below the $3.60/gallon average from President Biden’s term before the midterm elections in November. 

John Goreham is a 14-year veteran of Torque News. An accomplished writer and a long-time expert in vehicle testing, Goreham also serves as the Vice President of the New England Motor Press Association and has a growing social media presence. He’s also a 10-year staff writer and community moderator for Car Talk. Goreham holds a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering and an undergraduate Certificate in Marketing. In addition to vehicle and tire content, he offers deep dives into market trends and opinion pieces. You can follow John Goreham on X and TikTok, and connect with him on LinkedIn.

Top of page image by John Goreham, taken at Country Mile gas station, Greenville, NH on June 14. Gas price map courtesy of gasprices.aaa.com (June 17, 2026). America's gas prices in one chart courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and U.S. Dept. of Labor Statistics.
 

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