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The Final Tesla Q4, 2022 Delivery Estimates vs Analyst Consensus

We have the final delivery estimates from Troy Teslike, who is an accurate estimator of Tesla's delivery and production numbers. Here they are against the analyst consensus.


Estimation for Tesla's Q4, 2022

2022 was a great year for Tesla as a business and as we wait another week or so for Tesla's official production and delivery numbers for Q4, 2022, we can see an estimate from someone who has been doing estimation of Tesla's business for quite some time, Troy Teslike.

Try has an estimate for total deliveries of 423,000 against what most analysts are saying at 417,957. Troy has a 1.2% upside in Tesla's delivery numbers. Here's the breakdown of what he sees for Q4, 2022:

From Fremont, a total of 140,717 vehicles delivered broken down by 16,400 Model S and Model X, 60,500 Model 3, and 63,817 Model Y vehicles. It's interesting that the Model 3 and Model Y numbers are so similar from Fremont.

From Giga Shanghai, a total of 76,597 Model 3 and 147,007 Model Y vehicles. That is a lot of Model Y vehicles sold. This gives Giga Shanghai a total of 223,604 vehicles.

For Giga Berlin, 29,731 Model Y vehicles and that is also the total number of vehicles.

For Giga Texas, 28,912 Model Y vehicles and that is also the total number of vehicles.

For Nevada, 36 Tesla Semi vehicles and that is also the total number of vehicles.

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Tesla's 2023 Production and Deliveries

As I look through the Twitter feed of this report, there are some interesting questions and comments. The first is that there appears to be no production pause at Fremont this quarter.

Another commenter thought it was strange that Tesla has been offering so many incentives ending this year. I think Tesla did the right thing offering the incentives as it cleared existing inventory and got them ready for new models for 2023.

Another said what will happen if margins and demand falls further, will that compress Tesla? I would say if there is a recession, this could happen and there could be some more volatility for Tesla stock. Long term though, I think things will be good still.

I will also share my prediction for Tesla's Q4, 2022 deliveries. I think they will be 427,770 and will surprise many people who thought it would be less. Tesla's final push at the end of the quarter will be what drives this.

What do you think Tesla's Q4, 2022 numbers will be?

In Related News: Elon Musk Tells Employees Not To Worry About Stock

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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.

Image Credit, Tesla, Screenshot


Neil T (not verified)    January 1, 2023 - 9:41AM

A bit more analysis of the numbers would beg some questions.

Shanghai delivered 177k 3/Y in Q3, but delivered 171k in the first two months of Q4.

This would lead to the expectation that Troy was at least 50k under on Shanghai numbers for Q4.

My question is more around just how close Tesla gets to 1.4m.

Another point often missed. The 50% exponential growth, on average, prediction, was made in 2020. Even 1.3m would exceed the 50% in 2022 just as it was exceeded in 2021.