U.S. Gas Prices Jump to About $3.25 a Gallon, but AAA and GasBuddy Made a Very Interesting Prediction Before Hostilities Flared That You May Wish To Hear

As Iran launches attacks into all of its neighbors’ territory - but one - the price of gasoline in America has ticked up. It’s up about 27 cents per gallon of regular fuel since a week ago, according to AAA’s latest update. The average in America is now $3.25, according to AAA. Without a doubt, much of that rise is related to the conflict. However, both GasBuddy and AAA posted announcements in middle February that forecast seasonal price increases to come. And the timing they provided is spot-on.

Refinery Work and Season Changes To Gas Prices
On February 16th, GasBuddy posted an article predicting that prices would rise for two reasons. First, GasBuddy pointed to refinery maintenance as one reason prices should be expected to rise. “...upward momentum could accelerate in the coming weeks as refinery maintenance intensifies,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. The same article offered that “Refinery utilization fell 1.0 percentage points to 89.4%.” Lower refinery output can cause gas prices to rise slightly, as it makes gas more scarce. The second reason that GasBuddy predicted rising gas prices back in mid-February was the seasonal changeover to gasoline formulation.

AAA offered two reasons for the slight increases in gas prices in February as well. On February 12th, AAA noted that the holiday (Presidents’ Day) that accompanies many family holidays during the school vacation week caused prices to go up a bit. A few cents per gallon was the observation and prediction for that reason.

AAA also predicted a rise in gas prices from the seasonal gas formulation shift. Here’s what AAA posted just two days ahead of the initial start of the conflict, which began with Israel and the US conducting daylight bombings and missile strikes.

The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline went up by more than 5 cents this past week to $2.98. Refineries are beginning the process of producing summer-blend gasoline, which contains pricier additives to help reduce evaporation during warmer months. Gas demand is also expected to increase next month as spring break season kicks off and more drivers take road trips.

Personal Observations of the Changes In Gas Prices from January to the Present Day
Yesterday, on March 4th, midday, we purchased gasoline from The Country Mile in Greenville, New Hampshire. It’s a very large station with many pumps, and even some dedicated big-rig diesel pumps separate from the consumer aisles. The price of the gas was $2.69 per gallon. We had recorded the price there on January 1st, 2026, with a photo, and the price was $2.59. 

So, the price only changed a dime in two months. However, The Country Mile updated its online prices today, and it is now $2.99! A thirty-cent leap in just 24 hours. By all indications, the price leap is likely from the conflict, since a 10% daily leap is never associated with seasonal formulation changeover or normal refinery availability swings.

What do you think? Will the price of fuel level off, or will the prices continue the steep increases as the conflict plays out? Tell us your prediction in the comments below. 

Images by John Goreham.

About The Author

John Goreham is 14 year veteran of Torque News. An accomplished writer and a long-time expert in vehicle testing, Goreham also serves as the Vice President of the New England Motor Press Association and has a growing social media presence. He’s also a 10-year staff writer and community moderator for Car Talk. Goreham holds a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering and an undergraduate Certificate in Marketing. In addition to vehicle and tire content, he offers deep dives into market trends and opinion pieces. You can follow John Goreham on X and TikTok, and connect with him on LinkedIn.