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Are the Chevy Volt or Nissan Leaf flops as some naysayers claim?

A report by 24/7 Wall Street spins the truth about the Chevy Volt into a negative view on its sales and popularity record.
2012 Chevy Volt, picture copyright GM

An article from 24/7 Wall Street published yesterday on Yahoo Finance lists their picks for the worst product flops of 2011. The list includes some understandable big flops such as Netflix's failed decision to change their business model, and curiously listed the Chevy Volt as one of the flops. Given the number of naysayers (many with apparent political motives) who are railing against the development of electrified cars it's worth taking a look at the reasoning by which they call not only the Chevy Volt, but the Nissan Leaf, flops (or worst).

The 24/7 article makes two claims, the first that "excitement has fizzled" resulting in weak sales, and the second that the car is a safety risk because of battery pack fires. Both of these claims are a factually weak negative spin of the truth.

In the context of discussing Volt sales, Larry Nitz, GM’s executive director for vehicle electrification, is quoted saying “It’s naive to think that the world is going to switch tomorrow to EVs [electric vehicles].” The sales figures are described as "consistently low" and they cite July's 125 Volt sales to bolster this claim.

First off nobody expects there to be a wholesale overnight switch to electric cars, so Nitz was simply telling the truth. If your success criteria electric car adoption were to require they immediately take, say, 30% of new car sales, that would be nothing short of ridiculous. Or, as Nitz said, naive. The Toyota Prius was not an overnight success, instead it took several years before its sales took off. Why should we expect anything different from electric cars?

Second, are the sales actually weak? The truth is total sales for the Volt in 2011 were 6,142 through the end of November. This is shy of their yearly sales goal, but how often do companies make sales goals? July's weak sales were because of factory retooling preventing the manufacture of any Volts. This was widely reported last summer, so one wonders why so many ignore this fact? There were 1,139 Volts sold in November, 1,108 sold in October and 723 sold in September. This pattern of rising sales doesn't look like "fizzled".

Sales of the Nissan Leaf were 8,720 sold through the end of November. They sold 672 in November, 849 in October, and 1,031 in September, which is a pattern of shrinking sales.

If you were to measure electric car sales gains between last year (2010) and this (2011) it would be a tremendous jump. In 2010 the only electric cars sold were a few hundred Tesla Roadsters, a few other specialty cars, and the few Nissan Leaf's and Chevy Volts that were delivered in 2010. In 2011 the total electric car sales in the U.S. will be over 15,000, which would be a huge percentage jump if reported this way.

The second point made in the 24/7 article is described this way: "Adding insult to injury, Chevy Volts are under investigation for fires involving the cars’ lithium-ion batteries." The word "fires" is incorrect as there has been only one fire in a Volt. It had undergone extreme crash testing, and the battery pack took three weeks to catch fire. NHTSA later subjected battery packs to additional testing and managed to get two packs to catch fire, at which point they opened a formal investigation. One can, if you will, inflame this to make these facts look bad but the truth is that NHTSA and the car companies routinely go through safety investigations, and in particular car fires are so routine that they're barely reported in the news. There are 250,000 or more car fires per year with hundreds of deaths. Yet one fire, after crash testing, that took three weeks to catch fire, is portrayed as a death knell for the Chevy Volt by 24/7's report. Really?

Referring back to the sales figures and we see Novembers Chevy Volt sales (1,139) were larger than Octobers (1,031). The battery pack fire was disclosed on November 11, 2011, and one would think if the fire was a large concern for Volt buyers that November's sales would have dropped. Instead they grew.

The Chevy Volt is being portrayed by many as an unpopular car with weak sales. We've already discussed the "weak sales" idea, finding that claim to be "weak" but what about its popularity? The sales figures are growing, in the face of a safety concern. A perusal of Chevy Volt owners forums such as gm-volt.com and the Volt Owners group on Facebook show owners who are routinely proclaiming how much they love this car. A concrete example is the couple hundred Volt owners who signed an open letter to GM earlier this month saying essentially that "GM will get their cars back over their cold dead bodies." (see Chevy Volt owners to GM: We're Keeping our Cars & Keys and Chevrolet Volt Owners Most Satisfied, According to Consumer Reports)

A point many make is to tie the Obama Administration to the Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf as if both were invented by Obama's team. The truth is that it takes many years to develop a new car design and manufacturing techniques. The Volt's design work began in 2006, for example, well before Obama was elected. Instead electrified vehicles are largely inevitable in part due to technology advances making electrification more cost effective and practical than it was in previous years. All the automakers foresee tightening emissions and fuel efficiency regulations over the coming years, and are working proactively to improve both these scores, relying on hybrid and electric vehicle technologies in an ever increasing ways. An example is Ford's long-range plans for vehicle electrification, and that, in 2020, 10-25% of Fords new vehicle sales will be electrified vehicles (hybrid, plug-in or full electric). (see Ford showcasing 100 MPGe Ford Focus Electric and other clean vehicle technology)

We're at a beginning point for electrifying the vehicle fleet not only in the U.S. but around the world. Governments and automakers recognize that fuel availability (peak oil) and environmental concerns point to the need to radically increase fuel efficiency and decrease emissions. In the meantime the current electric car program has become politicized with many factually weak attacks on the cars and the program. Was the Volt a flop in 2011? The facts say otherwise.

See: The Worst Product Flops of 2011

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General Motors
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Comments

Anonymous (not verified)    December 29, 2011 - 12:58PM

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Build um and price them for the masses and not the smelling their own farts elite and maybe sales would improve. Give us basic electric or hybrid transportation minus all the bells and whistles you know like the peoples car and watch the sales soar.

Tinapoli (not verified)    December 30, 2011 - 1:08AM

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Mitsubishi is ready to take your order. The Mitsubishi i-Miev is $21,625. It's basic electric transportation minus all the bells and whistles, you know like the peoples car. You'll be placing your order next week I assume? I prefer my Volt, but there you go.

Robert (not verified)    December 29, 2011 - 2:33PM

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David Herron, thank you for your well-considered article. It is rewarding to see a writer present a perspective true to the facts. The Chevy Volt is a tremendous success by almost any measure.

Anonymous (not verified)    December 29, 2011 - 4:04PM

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The volt is NOT a flop!

Vehicle awards
· 2009 Green Car Vision Award by the Green Car Journal
· 2011 North American Car of the Year at the 2011 North American International Auto Show.
· Motor Trend 2011 Car of the Year
· Automobile Magazine 2011 Automobile of the Year

· MotorWeek 2011 Driver’s Choice Best of the Year
· Car and Driver 10 Best for 2011
· 2011 Edison Award
· Highest-rated compact for 2011 J.D. Powers and Associates APEAL Study
· 2012 Car of the Year in Denmark
· Consumer Reports rates Volt #1 in Owner Satisfaction
· Named “2011 Collectible Car of the Future” by Friends of the National Automotive History Collection (NAHC)
Environmental awards
· 2009 Environmental Grand Prize awarded at the 2009 Festival International Automobile
· 2011 World Green Car announced at the 2011 New York Auto Show
· 2011 Green Car of the Year awarded by Green Car Journal
· MotorWeek 2011 Best Eco-Friendly
· Chicago Auto Show Best Green Vehicle
Technology awards
· Ward’s AutoWorld 10 Best Engines for 2011
· SAE 2011 Best Engineered Vehicle
· Top Michigan Innovation in 2011
· Edmunds 2011 Green Car Breakthrough Award
· Popular Mechanics 2010 Breakthrough Technology
· Popular Mechanics Top 10 Vehicles Award for Technology
· Popular Mechanics Editor’s Choice Award for OnStar MyLink for Volt
Mobile Application awards
· Popular Science Best of What’s New 2010
· Consumer Electronics Show’s “Top Products” Award for OnStar MyLink for Volt Mobile Application
Safety acknowledgements
· Top Safety Pick by Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
· National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Five-star overall vehicle score
· Euro NCAP Five stars (out of five) in all categories
Value acknowledgments
· Best Electric Car awarded for 2012 resale value by Kelley Blue Book”
· Kiplinger demonstrated in five years time the Volt can earn back 91 percent of a $19,000 cost differential between it and a Cruze internal combustion powered cousin
Economy acknowledgements
· 2011 Volt names most fuel-efficient compact car by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
· 2012 Volt again named by EPA most fuel-efficient gas-powered vehicle

Anonymous (not verified)    December 29, 2011 - 4:04PM

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Vehicle awards
· 2009 Green Car Vision Award by the Green Car Journal
· 2011 North American Car of the Year at the 2011 North American International Auto Show.
· Motor Trend 2011 Car of the Year
· Automobile Magazine 2011 Automobile of the Year

· MotorWeek 2011 Driver’s Choice Best of the Year
· Car and Driver 10 Best for 2011
· 2011 Edison Award
· Highest-rated compact for 2011 J.D. Powers and Associates APEAL Study
· 2012 Car of the Year in Denmark
· Consumer Reports rates Volt #1 in Owner Satisfaction
· Named “2011 Collectible Car of the Future” by Friends of the National Automotive History Collection (NAHC)
Environmental awards
· 2009 Environmental Grand Prize awarded at the 2009 Festival International Automobile
· 2011 World Green Car announced at the 2011 New York Auto Show
· 2011 Green Car of the Year awarded by Green Car Journal
· MotorWeek 2011 Best Eco-Friendly
· Chicago Auto Show Best Green Vehicle
Technology awards
· Ward’s AutoWorld 10 Best Engines for 2011
· SAE 2011 Best Engineered Vehicle
· Top Michigan Innovation in 2011
· Edmunds 2011 Green Car Breakthrough Award
· Popular Mechanics 2010 Breakthrough Technology
· Popular Mechanics Top 10 Vehicles Award for Technology
· Popular Mechanics Editor’s Choice Award for OnStar MyLink for Volt
Mobile Application awards
· Popular Science Best of What’s New 2010
· Consumer Electronics Show’s “Top Products” Award for OnStar MyLink for Volt Mobile Application
Safety acknowledgements
· Top Safety Pick by Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
· National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Five-star overall vehicle score
· Euro NCAP Five stars (out of five) in all categories
Value acknowledgments
· Best Electric Car awarded for 2012 resale value by Kelley Blue Book”
· Kiplinger demonstrated in five years time the Volt can earn back 91 percent of a $19,000 cost differential between it and a Cruze internal combustion powered cousin
Economy acknowledgements
· 2011 Volt names most fuel-efficient compact car by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
· 2012 Volt again named by EPA most fuel-efficient gas-powered vehicle

Wags (not verified)    December 30, 2011 - 12:17PM

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The point is Chevy Volt sales are disappointing. From the owners it appears they love them. However the bottom line is sales and is GM making a profit? The days of Federal & State subsidies will end as govts face their financial condition. Then EVs will have to make or break it on their own.

EVs will be successful on a large scale if breakthroughs happen in battery storage & cost. That's a big if.

owlafaye (not verified)    December 30, 2011 - 5:49PM

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It comes down to money, something these apologist blogs/articles never mention. The complex engineering of the VOLT means expensive maintenance and repairs down the road. This, and the huge up front cost makes the VOLT a financial pig.

You will never ever realize any "gas savings" with the VOLT once you have factored in all the costs. At present you can buy almost 3 new, high economy cars for the final purchase price of the VOLT...THREE 40+ mpg cars !

Anonymous (not verified)    January 1, 2012 - 6:28AM

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Sales means delivered products here. So if the numbers are low, this is only a result of low supplies.

The shrinking numbers at Nissan Leaf in the USA from September are only a result of new countries supplied with Leafs, meaning fewer Leafs for the USA.

The preorder-lists are long, and with production in the UK-Factory by the end of 2011 numbers will rise in 2012. Good Luck!

Anonymous (not verified)    January 3, 2012 - 2:45PM

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Given the massive, conservative media and think take driven, negative campaign attempting to character assassinate these vehicles, its amazing they've sold as many as they have. In truth the cars are both fantastic. I love my Volt. The jerks would have to pry it from my dead hands to get me to give it up. And there are thousands of customers who feel the same way. Anyone attacking this car is an idiot or is stained with oil money. That's my view.

JP White (not verified)    January 3, 2012 - 4:46PM

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Given what they did calling in leases on EV1's and crushing them is one reason I did NOT lease my LEAF. All the more difficult for the EV to be killed again if we own them. Like you say, they will have to pry EV's from our dead hands.

I'm not sure everyone should be labelled an idiot for lambasting EV's. Most of the nay-sayers are probably ignorant of the facts simply believing the misguided mantra delivered to them. Jim Motavalli's recent book 'High Voltage' should be required reading before anyone put's down the technology. Motavalli presents a balanced view of the state of the EV industry and where he thinks it might go.