Tesla Model Y, Courtesy of Tesla Inc.
Nicolas Caballero's picture

Morgan Stanley: Tesla To Overtake Ford And General Motors By 2030

According to Adam Jonas, a well-known analyst from Morgan Stanley, in eight years (by 2030) Tesla will surpass the overall market share of Ford and General Motors in the United States. According to his estimates, Tesla will have an 18% stake, as compared to a 10% for Ford and 12% for General Motors.
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Ford currently has a 12.5% and General Motors a 14% share in the US market, while Tesla barely has a 3.5%, so far. However, the weight of Tesla in the US market is gradually and steadily increasing, in large part due to the increasing demand for electric cars, a sector in which the company is clearly the worldwide leader. Both Ford and General Motors have significant electrification programs; in fact, Ford announced this week its intention to invest an additional 20 billion dollars in the development of electric cars, as well as an internal restructuring in order to focus their business on electric mobility in the coming years.

Adam Jonas, the Morgan Stanley analyst, believes that these changes will be insufficient for Ford and General Motors, since according to his calculations Tesla will already have 10% of the overall market share by 2026-2027 (that is, including internal combustion cars). He also points out that by that time Tesla's profits will greatly exceed those of Ford and General Motors COMBINED, a trend that will surely become visible in the very short term.

Tesla Model S, courtesy of Tesla Inc.

It is also interesting to note that while Ford no longer sells sedan models in the United States - in order to focus on more profitable SUVs and crossovers - Tesla has two models of this type to offer: the Model 3 and Model S, which cover two categories (segment D and segment E) in which Ford was present until recently, with the Fusion and Taurus models.

Tesla Model 3, Courtesy of Tesla Inc.

This quite graphic example reflects in a clear way the gradual displacement to which Tesla is subjecting traditional car manufacturers. Without going any further, and despite the enormous success of the electric F-150 Lightning pick-up truck (which has basically forced Ford to double the planned production for the next few years), the Tesla Cybertruck currently accumulates many more reserves (around 1,3 million), according to many different sources.

Will Morgan Stanley's predictions come true? On paper it does not seem unreasonable, since the rapid growth of Tesla and the undeniable success of its current models (and future, as its high reservation rates show) tell us that, at the current rate, traditional manufacturers could be outdone sooner rather than later. According to InsideEVs, "...Tesla already surpassed BMW for total sales volume in the US, selling 16,000 more vehicles (regardless of power source) than the Bavarians (352,471 sales versus 336,644 sales). It also sold more vehicles than Lexus (304,476 cars sold in the US) and Mercedes-Benz (276,102 sales)."

All images courtesy of Tesla Inc.

Nico Caballero is the VP of Finance of Cogency Power, specializing in solar energy. He also holds a Diploma in Electric Cars from Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, and enjoys doing research about Tesla and EV batteries. He can be reached at @NicoTorqueNews on Twitter. Nico covers Tesla and electric vehicle latest happenings at Torque News.


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