Will Tesla Continue To Grow?
Tesla recently reported delivery and production numbers in another record quarter. Will Tesla be able to keep up this growth in the future?
Recently, the Twitter user, James Stephenson, posted 69 Tweets in the most detailed analysis of Tesla I've ever seen. Let's take a look at Tweet #5 of these which focuses on Tesla's production and delivery numbers over each quarter and year - with Q2-Q4, 2021 as projections. Here are the details!
Will Tesla Continue Its Growth Story?
Here's a chart showing the quarterly trend over time in Production vs. Deliveries, including my forecast through 2023:
— James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) June 13, 2021
As we can see in the above chart, James is forecasting Tesla to continue to grow at a rapid rate, reaching almost 700,000 quarterly deliveries by 2023. This is over 3 times the quarterly delivery and production numbers Tesla has right now. Will Tesla be able to achieve this in just over two years?
Giga Berlin and Giga Texas
Two important factors for Tesla to continue its rapid growth will be having Giga Berlin (which I think is ahead of schedule) and Giga Texas come online and start producing the Model Y and the CyberTruck.
Even though there have been obstacles to Giga Berlin coming online, I believe it's ahead of schedule and will produce vehicles in 2021. Giga, TX, will also produce vehicles in 2021. I don't think these numbers will be huge and will be just a few thousand combined.
Releasing the "Model 2" and "Model 1"
There are recent reports that Tesla is going to start expanding in India. India is a similar population to China and a very important market for Tesla to eventually reach. I believe Tesla will make a "Model 1" car, which will cost roughly $15,000 to release in India, along with a bus that will be able to act as a robotaxi and be cost effective for the population there.
What is the Tesla "Model 1"? It's simply a more affordable Model 2, which will be a more affordable Model 3. As far as I know, Tesla hasn't mentioned the "Model 1" anywhere except that it wants to produce more affordable cars over time. The market in India is where the Model 1 will shine. The United States, Europe, and South America is where the Model 2 will shine. There are also portions of South America that will only be able to afford the Model 1 or transportation on a bus Tesla creates.
No Shortage of Work to Be Done
Tesla is in its early growth still, despite a large run up in stock price over the last year. Tesla needs to get its new Giga factories online, start producing and delivering vehicles there, expand on its existing Giga factories, produce a more affordable Model 3 (the Model 2), create a van, create a more affordable Model 2 (the Model 1), and create a bus to serve mass transportation needs in poorer countries. Phew - that's a lot of work. Oh yes, I forgot the Tesla Roadster and Tesla Semi - those are in the works too!
I think James is close with his numbers and that Tesla's deliveries and production numbers will be very close together for many years to come.
What do you think about Tesla's growth - is it done? Or is Tesla just getting started?
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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn and Instagram to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.