This question by Gary Black is a good one. When will we see the CyberTruck start to enter production? It's a question many people have right now. And the answer is not clear. Most people think that toward the end of 2022 is when we will see production begin.
When Test CyberTrucks are Seen at Giga Austin Texas
We've seen a few prototypes of the CyberTruck driver around, but no sign of it beginning to enter mass production. And I think that is the better way to ask this question: When will the CyberTruck enter mass production?
Until we see a test CyberTruck being made at Giga Austin Texas, we can assume that the CyberTruck is at least 3 or more months out from being produced. And I'd say it's more than that because it's a brand new vehicle type Tesla has never produced.
When test vehicles are being produced, there is a period of time and testing before a ramp in production is done. This is to ensure that quality and safety are at their highest and this is one of Tesla's biggest standards. Just look at Lucid Motors. They have spent years creating prototypes and test vehicles and haven't produced any for a customer yet. It's not easy to do.
We've seen test Model Y vehicles at Giga Austin Texas. That is a clue that the Model Y in Texas is getting close to being produced. I'd say we are about 3 months away from the beginnings of a production ramp for that vehicle. But the CyberTruck is a different animal, one that Tesla has never produced in volume before.
When Will We See CyberTruck Enter Production?
I don't think Tesla is going to start production of the CyberTruck until they are absolutely sure they are ready and there is the necessary parts and hardware to make it happen. From Tesla's AI Day and Elon Musk, we know that the CyberTruck will use hardware version 4 for its FSD (full self-driving) and that it will be the first Tesla vehicle to do so. That hardware needs to be ready first.
Elon Musk said that the hardware was coming in "a year or so" after the AI day event. That would put it ready in Q3 of 2022. With the supply chain and chip shortage challenges, I'd say this is the earliest that we will see the CyberTruck begin production. It would be interesting to see if the ecat (solar panel system) is also going to be an addon per this Tweet:
Will be an option to add solar power that generates 15 miles per day, possibly more. Would love this to be self-powered. Adding fold out solar wings would generate 30 to 40 miles per day. Avg miles per day in US is 30.— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 22, 2019
I think the CyberTruck will begin production about a year after we see the first customer Model Y vehicles roll off the assembly line at Giga Austin Texas. This is in line with the time it takes to do testing. I'd put the timeline at November/December of 2022.
We haven't gotten a response yet to Gary Black's Tweet asking about the CyberTruck. My money is on Elon saying toward the end of 2022 or early 2023. Let's see what he says.
What do you think about the CyberTruck and will we see deliveries begin in 2022? Will the CyberTruck be a success or flop?
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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn and Instagram to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.