Tesla Robotaxi Vehicle: 5X the Value
Tesla Robotaxi Vehicle is 5X the Value
At some point in the future, when FSD is solved, the Tesla Robotaxi vehicle will not be sold by Tesla. Tesla will simply add them to a Robotaxi fleet of autonomous vehicles. There is also a 2nd option which Tesla might do as well, but we'll talk about that in a bit.
When will Tesla solve FSD? People think this will be between 2024 and 2027. Regardless of the timing, Tesla is improving the software, and it will eventually get good enough to drive without someone in the vehicle.
This Model 2 vehicle, or whatever you want to call it, will greatly reduce the cost of transportation. If I go to the airport right now, it's about $30 for me. In a robotaxi, that will be about $5. This is a big deal. You open up the door for people who can't afford private transportation.
You open up the market for those taking the bus or other public transport. With enough vehicles on the road, at some point, the cost of transport will become comparable to a bus or train. This will lead to a bunch of Robotaxi vehicles being on the road.
One option is for Tesla to not sell these vehicles, but let's go over the 2nd option, which may be more likely.
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Will Tesla Stop Selling Vehicles?
Tesla may offer a generic autonomous vehicle for other people to buy and add to autonomous driving fleets. This takes care of the issue that Tesla may have too much of a monopoly on FSD (full self-driving).
Tesla will manufacture millions of these vehicles, but how will they reach that kind of volume? One thing people are missing is the Humanoid Robot. The Humanoid Robot will take on repetitive tasks for making this vehicle, in my opinion.
Tesla shared a lot of the cost-cutting measures at Investor Day, and I expect that Tesla will hold more of these events. These events are geared toward engineers and long term investors.
If Tesla is going to get to 20 million vehicles per year, they are going to need more Giga factories. With every giga factory outside of Fremont making 2 million vehicles, you will need 9 or 10 Giga factories.
Tom Zhu thinks Tesla can get to 20 million vehicles per year before 2030, but there aren't any analysts or even Tesla bulls who see this happening.
Tesla might announce 2 additional Giga factory locations even while Giga Mexico is being built.
I expect Tesla to offer a generic, plug and play, robotaxi vehicle with no paint, and an easy way to put in seats or whatever you want, for others to put into autonomous fleets.
The Tesla robotaxi vehicle will be 5X the value because it will become a software driven profit model with recurring revenue. Elon Musk has stated that this will be the biggest asset price increase for a car ever.
What do you think Tesla will do?
For more information, see this video from Farzad Mesbahi:
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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.