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Tesla To Sell 10 Million Compact Vehicles Per Year
Tesla has released a 41-page PDF document outlining their Master Plan Part 3. They are giving everyone their plan in plain sight. The page that most people are going to care about is page 22, which talks about batteries for transportation.
In this page, you will see that Tesla is going to create the following vehicles:
* Compact: TBD
* Mid-sized: Model 3 and Model Y
* Vans: TBD
* Large sedans, SUVs, and Trucks: Model S and Model X and Cybertruck
* Bus: TBD
* Short Range Semi: Semi Light
* Long Range Semi: Semi Heavy
You can see that there are 7 vehicles already covered in this list that Tesla is calling out specifically. The most demand will be seen in the compact and mid-sized category, followed by vans and large sedans, SUVs, and trucks.
The demand for global vehicle sales for compact vehicles is currently 42 million. I don't believe that Tesla is going to make one variant of a compact car, but I do believe that its first variant will be a smaller Model Y the size of a Honda Fit.
This vehicle alone is going to sell around 5 million units per year. The other compact type is, of course, going to be a smaller Model 3. This vehicle could even be a 2 door vehicle and will most likely be the size of a Mini Cooper. This car is about 152 inches long, 58 inches wide, and 56 inches tall.
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How Will Tesla Sell 10 Million?
This is my prediction, then, that Tesla will make a compact Model Y the size of a Honda Fit and a compact Model 3 the size of a Mini Cooper. These compact vehicles will be smaller, have smaller batteries, cost a lot less, be more efficient, and won't have as much space.
I wrote that the Tesla compact will have a 53 kWh battery, but I am beginning to realize that this wasn't totally accurate. It's quite possible that Tesla will have battery sizes in this amount for 2 compact variants:
* Compact Model 3, the size of a Mini Cooper: 38 kWh battery. Range: 230 miles
* Compact Model Y, the size of a Honda Fit: 48 kWh battery. Range: 250 miles
This makes a lot more sense to me because a small compact Model 3 should be able to get upwards of 6 miles per kWh and the compact Model Y should get about 4.5 to 5 miles per kWh, putting the range of these vehicles over 200 still.
The cost of the Compact Model 3 will be around $23,000 and the compact Model Y will be around $28,000, in my opinion.
What's really exciting is two things. First, these compact vehicles will get better over time with better range, performance, and features. Second, Tesla will introduce a compact of a compact, which will be a two-seater, like an Aptera. This vehicle will sell for around $15,000 to $18,000 and have a 25 kWh battery and get about 8 to 10 miles per kWh. Tesla may even buy Aptera at some point and crown this vehicle the compact/compact.
What do you think Tesla's upcoming compact vehicles will be?
In Related News: Elon Musk Gives Nod to Model 3 - Project Highland
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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.
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