The Staggering Economics of the Tesla Semi

The cost per mile is essentially irrelevant when you think about the purpose of a business. Losing less money on transportation does not matter if the Tesla Semi isn’t able to carry as much product. Since Tesla still refuses to publish the carrying capacity of the semi, it doesn’t look too good at the moment.

So many misconceptions, mostly from the naysayers. The economics are easy to figure out. To make the math easy, let's say our truckers drive 100,000 miles per year. Our author figures about $0.70 per mile in savings. That'd be $70,000 per year. Even at $35,000 per year, you'd get a pretty quick payback in the cost difference. Like, enough to buy another Tesla semi after 5 years if it dies prematurely.

As far as emissions go, a Diesel truck getting 6 mpg will emit about 3.7 lbs of CO2 per mile driven. Ballpark average. Simple math using easily available data. The average power plant in the US emits 0.85 lb CO2 per kwh. If the truck uses 2 kwh per mile, that's 1.7 lb CO2 per mile driven. So for every 10,000 miles, you save about 20,000 lbs of CO2.

I found a source that estimates the CO2 generation in the process of mining, shipping materials and producing a Tesla battery. They figure 400 lb per kwh on the high end. Less than a quarter of that on the low end. Nobody really knows, but these guys are smarter than me, so I have to assume they're in the ballpark. If you assume a 500 kwh battery that's 200,000 lb of CO2 on the high end. If you assume that other aspects of building the truck are similar to a diesel truck, It would need to go about 100,000 miles to get out of the red for carbon footprint. Now, that's on the high end. More realistically, it's probably closer to 50,000 miles. Less than a year for most truckers.

So, yeah, lithium, nickel, and cobalt mining are dirty and bad for the environment. But they don't carry the same potential for geopolitical destabilization, famine, drought, flood, and all sorts of nastiness that comes with CO2. So, much like voting, you have to choose the lesser of two evils. This one, to me, is a no-brainer.

Edison Motors will have an electric semi truck on the road well before Tesla even has a fully functioning prototype.

Tesla super chargers, charge 35¢ kwh.
Tesla model 3 gets 4 miles per kWh.
The Tesla semi probably gets less than 1 mile per kWh.
Let's be realistic.
Now I hope E-trucks hit the road and yes they will be less expensive to operate.
Their pay back will probably be a few years and from there on out they will be money makers just like all smart investments for the oiless future.

Tesla super chargers, charge 35¢ kwh.
Tesla model 3 gets 4 miles per kWh.
The Tesla semi probably gets less than 1 mile per kWh.
Let's be realistic.
Now I hope E-trucks hit the road and yes they will be less expensive to operate.
Their pay back will probably be a few years and from there on out they will be money makers just like all smart investments for the oiless future.

Time will tell. It's ok for going from point a to point b. So far I haven't heard of any solution to the work aspect which is 70 percent of local and regional trucks. Concrete trucks, garbage trucks , boom trucks , tow trucks and many others that need to use some type of power take off pump or auxiliary unit to power working components on the truck. Electric pumps deplete the available power supply too rapidly and there are no rotating components to operate a hydraulic or direct drive pump.. It just isn't realistic for most of the market yet.

Without a single official document showing cargo weight capacity? Mentions of 0 to 60 speeds and range but no weight capacity? Is that range while loaded? With how much weight?

Anyone buying a semi tractor might be interested in weight capacity. Until that is discussed this whole thing is a stock pump.

Um...ever heard of Nikola? You know, the company already in production of electric semis? Why are you treating your "economic" analysis as if it's unique to Tesla's semi?

Electricity still has to come from somewhere. Either coal fired power plants, or nuclear, which the leftists don't want.

Are we forgetting about the Safety Driver requirement.?. As far as I know, that hasn't been waived. That's gonna have additional impact on the cost basis that was discussed in the article.
Nobody works for free....ESPECIALLY the Teamster distribution drivers.

Golly Wilbur...$.07/KW-hr? Is that the new Biden Inflation Reduction rate? Did tbey release the Strategic Electrical Reserve? Long as we're at it, let's have the taxpayer subsidize these new electric semis...take from the poor and give it to Elon!

The article quoted Musk as saying the truck battery would have a 500 mile range...at what weight of the truck and cargo? I don't think a battery truck will make 500 miles with 80k weight. Also, how long does it take to recharge the battery? Hours of service restrictions have to be factored into recharge time. Now of this wad touched on.

Where does a trucker find .07/kwh? My home is .14 and chargers as high as .35

I think this is a bit simplistic. What about losing40 percent of range in cold weather? How heavy a cargo are these numbers based on? What about down time for the truck while it sits charging?

First off, funny how this columnist is an investor in Tesla...guessing there's a little bias.
Second, while this all sounds great, what is the initial cost of said Tesla Semi versus a conventional diesel tractor, and how long would that truck need to run to break them even. And last, weight. If the battery pack's weight is significantly more such as those in the Tesla cars, that is less room to legally transport product out of the 80000 gvwr youre allowed. Now, instead of running 1 truck load, you're running two to comply with DOT weight regulations. It all sounds good, but everything with electric has a hidden dark cloud that no one wants to talk about. And I won't even go into the battery maintenance, replacement cost, or disposal. Not as perfect as they are made out to be. Why more tech isn't being invested in syn fuel/electric hybrid is beyond me. But, what do I know.

It's not just about the energy used to move the truck. The part you're missing is payload. The Tesla weighs substantially more than a diesel truck. Since trucks have a maximum weight an electric loses payload capacity. This means a loss in revenue per trip.

You shouldn't drink and write. This article is terribly written.

Jeremy needs to learn how to proofread his article. Spelling and grammar mistakes for an article published at the national level should be inexcusable.

You're right on one thing, its going to disrupt the trucking industry. How long does it take to charge fully? If the range is only 200 miles per charge, thats not all that much. Drivers only get to drive so many hours a day, downtime on driving is expensive. If a driver and drive 11 hours a day, at 65 miles per hour, thats 715 miles per day. Now add in, lets say, 1.5 hours to charge. You've now lost 97.5 miles due to charging. And if each charge only get 200 miles, thats a stop to charge roughly every 3 hours.

Diesel is a 20 minute stop, probably once a day...

What a linear article.

What does the Tesla truck cost compared to a standard diesel?

What percent of trucks drive < 500 miles per haul?

How much does cold draw the battery down?

So many more questions, but these simple one's ought to be answered in this puff piece. I'm a TSLA bull and a huge fan of electrics, but presenting one-sided vantage points is meaningless.

I am amazed that no one seems to recognize this is a perfect urban response to trucking. Use I CE trucks for a long haul and then at the cross dock transfer to an EV truck for delivery.
Urban pollution is what every right buddy recognizes in traffic jams. The green concepts of cleaning up our air in general is going to take a long time.

You are omitting as did musk the most important thing for semi, payload. When you add up how much battery weight and the fact semis can't be over 44,000 pounds you will realize just how bad the economics will be.

The author is way under estimated of charging at Tesla charger. Their average is over $0.30 per kw.

My questions would be that even if those are unmanned units, what truck stop is going to build an infrastructures at the truck stops and who is to say that many truck driver is going to give up that space to take their 10 hrs. break? We already have an over crowded truck stops as is and a tired driver is not going to care what spot he is going to back into for those solar panel drivers to take their breaks. And ad I under stand it D.O.T. still require those automated trucks to shut down for a minimum of 10 hours.

It is clean, it is cheaper per mile running cost.
But, unfortunately all the savings are eaten in the EV purchase price and battery replacement, or even more than that.

This was a lazy article. 7c/kwh? The US average is 14c. An average supercharger is double that. MAYBE if you run your own solar it's 7-8c. Also, the semi is heavier than a standard. You'll lose our on some cargo revenue for loads that are weight limited (volume limited will not be affected). All of this needs to also take into account an expected mile maintenance cost (to the benefit of electric) and driver costs (to the detriment of electric, since the loads will be smaller and as such a driver's pay will be a larger proportion). This could've been done so much better with 15 mins of work and even a basic understanding of the topic.

What is the cost of tires?
Extra weight will reduce the life of the tires.
Add that to the cost of ownership.

I drove OTR for 30 years and I completely support Elon, I always have have! He isn't there yet with the OTR rig but Pepsi, In N Out, Budweiser etc and it's drivers will LOVE this rig. Will steep inclines take more energy from Batteries? Will these rigs have engine braking on the down hills? Charging stations are EVERYTHING in trucking, believe me. How well does the A/C work? Take the drivers seat from the middle of the cab and move it to the left and use the passenger seat floor space for something else. Put a jump seat in the sleeper berth. Fold-down like the deadhead seats in the old 707s. Keep going Elon! Your almost there

Gonna need to overhaul the entire electric grid first