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Tesla FSD is Already Done and Nobody Can See It

Tesla FSD is already done and there are three clues that if you are paying attention, will tell you that FSD is done. These clues and more will be what we go over now.

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Tesla FSD is Already Done and Nobody Can See It

Tesla FSD is ready to go right now and there are some clues as to why this is. First off, Andrej Karpathy went on a multiple month sabbatical. This is the head of AI for Tesla. Elon Musk is also directing efforts to buying Twitter and doing other things. If you follow Elon Musk and his interviews, he seems to be in a good mood, especially regarding FSD. These things wouldn't be happening if FSD was uncertain to Tesla.

There were some difficult times for Tesla and Elon Musk in 2019. Elon looked very tired and was impatient on some calls. He also looked stressed and tired then. There was the Model 3 launch in 2019, which I'm sure added to the stress.

Elon Musk is very focused right now on what is going with Tesla and his answers on earnings calls and interviews are very relaxed. A lot of his answers are also in regards to Tesla FSD. Elon is the founder and leader of Tesla and he has stated that the AI portion of the business (FSD, Tesla Bot), are priority #1 for Tesla. This has been stated multiple times.

With this being the case, why would Elon Musk buy Twitter, which would take time away from your other projects in a significant way? Even if Elon Musk has a greater bandwidth than the normal person, this is still going to take a good amount of this time. In addition to that, the leader of FSD, Andrej Karpathy went on a multiple month sabbatical. Elon is also being very cheerful

FSD is Ready or Just About Ready to Launch

The leadership structure and Elon Musk needing to be heavily involved in FSD is likely not needed anymore. Tesla is going to release another version of FSD in the next couple weeks, and there is a good chance that we'll see this version of FSD being the best version yet and showing that the software has greatly improved.

At the very least, there is a structure in place for Tesla FSD that is going to take care of FSD without the need of intervention from Elon Musk or Andrej Karpathy. If this is the case, that is the ultimate measure of leadership, to build a team that is able to function autonomously and build the software without anymore supervision - the vision is already provided.

Based on the communication from Elon Musk and his team regarding FSD and that he is confident that FSD is going to be done in 2022, we can assume that Elon Musk diverting his attention is that FSD is just about done. This is more likely than FSD being a failure and not going to work out.

The signs are all there that Tesla FSD is ready to go and it's just a matter of time and training models before it's safer than a human driver!

Will Tesla FSD be safer than the average human driver this year? Will robotaxis start to enter service in 2023?

For more information, see this video from Farzad Mesbahi:

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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.

Image Credit, CFairTech (CfTesla), Screenshot

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Comments

NeilT (not verified)    May 8, 2022 - 2:07PM

After AI day Tesla brought on board many AI resources. Musk was particular in wanting people with real world experience of making AI do what is needed rather than book learning. People who could break down the glass ceiling and move forward.

Andrej Karpathy was at the helm every time they had a false dawn. Perhaps one of the new hires convinced Musk to take a different approach. Perhaps Karpathy didn't want to go there? Perhaps the new approach proved out which is why updates stopped for so long and when it did update some of the previous finish was lost and some of the "nice to have" features had been lost.

Musk would have been tense and short every time they kept hitting the ceiling. If he was convinced that they now are moving in the right direction and that all the prior barriers have been removed, then he could be more relaxed without FSD being "done".

Some of the pressure has gone with constant profits. Not only constant profits but ever growing profits where scaling increases margin and increases profits.

If you read Launched, you realise that Musk put his entire net worth and life gains to date into Tesla and SpaceX and he must have been under incredible stress for decades to see that his entire life's work was not lost.

There is no real danger to Tesla now. Tesla would have to make an incredible mistake to be at risk now as the existing auto business are still trying to compete for the scraps left by Tesla. As for SpaceX, they are rapidly eating up the entire space launch business for the world and that is without Starship.

He has a lot to be relaxed about. He even felt relaxed enough to call the SEC both liars and "bastards". That's not the move of someone who feels threatened. Twitter I see as "revenge" on the SEC served very cold indeed. First he gets control of Twitter and ensures that what he says is faithfully reported then he removes a key pivotal technology, in the future transition of the world to a technical world, from the oversight of the SEC.

I'm not sure that Twitter will be his last "take private" move which removes key structure from the oversight of the SEC. I also can't see Musk stopping provoking them either.

This is a different Musk. Released from two decades of worry and concern and with the financial means to do what he thinks needs to be done.

I'm not surprised he's more relaxed.

Thomas G Marti… (not verified)    May 9, 2022 - 8:08AM

FSD is VERY far from being done. It is dangerous to drive with it on. It doesn't recognize speed limits on black on yellow signs. It interprets minimum speed signs as speed limit signs. It freezes on unprotected left hand turns leaving car in middle of intersection. Even if driving exactly at the posted speed limit, it has a very hard time staying on its lane on curvy roads. This is especially dangerous since it positions the car closer to the middle line than most people drive and there is less margin for error. It doesn't recognize my HOA's steel gate and would crash into it everytime that I try to enter.
In my area, you have to react very quickly to these errors or there would be a crash! I have 2020 MY LR AWD with latest updates.

Mark (not verified)    May 11, 2022 - 10:38AM

In reply to by Thomas G Marti… (not verified)

I hear what you’re saying but wrong, in my opinion. Fsd is complete when it can do everything musk has said it will do since 2016. I have it and it’s no where near complete based on the description of what it will be and what. Constant disengagements, stuttering, phantom breaking, and still can’t do summon that well.

For what it can do, sure it’s great but nothing near what has been promised.

NeilT (not verified)    May 11, 2022 - 7:52PM

It is hard to explain when some of the concepts are very specific and tightly focused.

When Musk talks about "feature complete" he is not saying "the car can drive in every circumstance", he is saying that the car has all the abilities to drive the vehicle, not that it is fully trained to do so.

When Google designed their game playing AI, it took them 3 years to code it. In those 3 years they generated 3 years worth of training data. When the AI was feature complete, they fed in the training data. It took 3 days to train it to be better than a human.

In the field of self driving AI, the training data is the digital data the vehicle generates from the cameras. That data is being assembled by hand right now. People tagging specific events so the labelling team can generate the training data for the AI.

This is like a 2 year old feeding training data to a chess grand master.

When Dojo comes online it will do the labelling of All the video automatically. It will then re-submit the existing data, correctly labelled, to the AI.

Once that is done the AI will be trained in days. Then it will be a matter of fine tuning it.

If you go back and look at your complaints above, ask yourself. Can the vehicle actually drive on the roads? Yes but it is not very good at it. Can it do unprotected left turns? Yes but it is not very good at it. Can it come when summoned? ditto, ditto just about every other driving action, reading signs, reacting to signs, lights, scenario's etc.

There is another scenario where that plays out. It's called a human student/learner driver.

Musk and team thought AI driving was easy with the right team. Based on the efforts of other companies doing their own work, Waymo, Uber, etc. It took time for them to realise that these companies were not doing real world AI driving, they were just creating something "just" good enough to get by.

Tesla wanted to replace the human in all scenario's. Did they get the time wrong? Sure. Did they give up? No.

Anyone who bought FSD and didn't read the bit at the end which states that even when it is absolutely complete, it still can't be used without regulatory approval, who is complaining about "delivery times"; didn't think it thought.

Mark (not verified)    May 16, 2022 - 9:57PM

In reply to by NeilT (not verified)

Thanks. I get it but in 2016 he said serval times and throughout the last 5 years, it’s coming this year, it will be release to public this year, can robotaxi-no problem (was his quote), summon from one side of country to the other, no upgrades needed, cars in 2016 have the equipment needed. Between hardware and camera upgrades, this is not true either. I get this stuff is hard, but to suggest he has not mislead on timelines or said many times all the features will be released (insert any year here), it’s not complete from a transactional standpoint. I paid xyz for a item where I was told it would be ready within a year that has yet to come to fruition. 4 years later and 50k miles later, I still don’t have anything complete.

When he said a car can drive itself from east to west coast without any driver or intervention is. I where near being complete. My guess is you wouldn’t summon your car in a semi empty parking lot without watching every second to ensure it’s good. Imagine doing that on opposite side of country. It’s not complete.

Mark (not verified)    May 16, 2022 - 9:49PM

In reply to by Jack Leonard (not verified)

Agreed but it’s not complete and the surprises you are referring to are promises he made in 2016 where, 6 years later nothing, not surprises. He said it will do x and it can not do it yet. Remember when he said we’d be able to summon from NY to cali with no driver, or robot taxis in 2019, and more I don’t want to type. Or fsd out of beta in 2020 and 2021?