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The Staggering Economics of the Tesla Semi

The economics of the Tesla semi show that it is about 83% cheaper to drive and haul goods than a standard diesel truck. Not to mention the reduction in cost due to less maintenance. The Tesla semi will truly disrupt the trucking industry.
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The Staggering Economics of the Tesla Semi

The Tesla Semi is going to start deliveries this year and there is some staggering economics of how much better it will be than a diesel truck.

Elon Musk has stated that the Tesla semi will start shipping this year and that it will have 500 miles of range. This is after many delays, but Tesla is finally ready to start delivering it to customers. In Elon's Master Plan, Part 2, he made reference to building an electric semi.

The first customer of the Tesla semi is not known to the public yet. Some think it will be PepsiCo because they placed an order for 100 electric semi trucks. Tesla will build out Mega Chargers for the Tesla semi in order to make sure it can charge quickly.

The Economics of the Tesla Semi

If you look at average fuel prices and use the website for U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), you can see about how much it costs for a trip for a diesel truck on a highway per gallon of diesel fuel. This ends up being about $4.99.

If you use a distance of 200 miles, you can do a calculation with a miles per gallon around 6 and come up with about 34 gallons (at 5.9 miles per gallon). This is simply for the average diesel truck.

With some simple math, you can take 34 gallons * $4.99, which is $169.76 for the cost of fuel for that diesel truck. This equals about 85 cents per mile. The Tesla semi, which is an electric truck, can take that same load and move it 200 miles. With electricity, you must think about it differently.

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We can use a 2 kWh per mile usage for the Tesla Semi even though Tesla says the energy consumption is less than that. This will make calculating more simple. If you take 200 miles * 2 kWh per mile, you get a total of 400 kWh consumed. Tesla can also provide an energy cost of about 7 cents per kWh.

You can then take that 400 kWh * $0.07 per kWh which equals $28 total for the 200 mile drive. This is about 14 cents per mile. With this you get:

* A diesel truck trip at 200 miles is $169.76
* A Tesla semi truck trip at 200 miles is $28.00

This is a savings of about 83% and the Tesla semi will have less wear and tear on its brakes, less maintenance due to having no engine and oil changes, along with being a source of clean energy.

For more information on this, you can see this Tweet thread by Alex Gayer:

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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.

Image Credit, Ryan Shaw, Screenshot

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Comments

Tim (not verified)    August 17, 2022 - 9:21AM

In reply to by Daryl Washburn (not verified)

Every comment here takes one piece of completely wrong information and uses it as a reason why the Semi won't work. Don't you think if there was solid reason why it wouldn't work, it would've been addressed already?

You assumed that the semi would weigh an extra 34,000 pounds. Why? A 500 mile battery is less that 11,000 pounds. An electric truck doesn't have all the weight of the engine, transmission, fuel tanks, and all the other peripherals of running on diesel like urea injection and exhaust pipes. There's no torque on the frame and the truck is shorter, so that'll weigh less too. We're probably looking an extra 2 tons, not 17.

George J Allen (not verified)    August 16, 2022 - 4:04PM

The problem is 500 miles, my brother averaged 1200 miles a day and didn't have time to sit at a charger.


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James park (not verified)    August 16, 2022 - 4:13PM

.07 cents per kilowatt hour. I get a discount on electricity and buy at the lowest rate of .17 cent per kilowatt hour. How does any company pay for less than half of a discounted rate like that. Just to transmit the electricity costs more than .07 cents. Your rate assumption is too low, unless you have some proof that .07 cents is a guaranteed rate.

David Maughan (not verified)    August 16, 2022 - 4:18PM

This cost per mile doesn't take into account the energy costs to create the batteries. While it may be cheaper on the road, all electric vehicles come preloaded with environmental costs out the gate

John (not verified)    August 16, 2022 - 9:32PM

If half the "cars" on the road are electric and 10% of them are being charged up at one time America will have 160,000 MW added demand to the nations power grid. That's 80 new fuel fired power generating stations. Shouldn't someone be concerned about that or will we need to live without light and AC to accommodate this leftist fantasy.

Guy (not verified)    August 17, 2022 - 6:55AM

Anyone ask how much it costs to mine the lithium? Anyone ask how much lithium is on the planet? How long is this viable for? Anyone ask how bad the harvesting of the mineral is on the planet? How about the damage to the habitat in the area they are mining for the minerals? Are they mining with electric drills and excavation equipment? Green energy doesn't mean no carbon footprint. Makes people feel good but it's not actually good for the planet.

JENNIFER Little (not verified)    August 17, 2022 - 7:48AM

Once we are all using electric the cost will go up due to demand. Our grid cant support such a change and it still requires oil to create the electricity so this is the major sucker play! Go electric and have major outages and only the rich will be going anywhere. If this was all about the planet then they would not be denying tax credits for Teslas. So political!!!

JENNIFER Little (not verified)    August 17, 2022 - 7:52AM

Once we are all using electric the cost will go up due to demand. Our grid cant support such a change and it still requires oil to create the electricity so this is the major sucker play! Go electric and have major outages and only the rich will be going anywhere. If this was all about the planet then they would not be denying tax credits for Teslas. So political!!!

jeremiah donovan (not verified)    August 17, 2022 - 8:43AM

This entire article is based on phantasy, 7 cents a kwh? That's the lowest I've seen anywhere in the country, the average is 15 cents a kwh and on top of that the study have shown that superchargers are 4 times the cost of the local electricity. So this isn't even close, REAL numbers would be the national average of 15 cents a hour, times 4 for the supercharger for 60 cents a kwh. Multiply by 400 kwh and your at 240 for the trip. Not to mention one of the reasons it's been delayed is they where testing in ohio and with a loaded truck struggled to get 100 miles in winter time. For those who don't k own lithium ion is a chemical reaction to charge and discharge electricity. Like everything else this happens slower in the cold, at 32 degrees you loose 30% battery capacity, and take 30% longer to charge. All numbers provided for range and such at at 72 degrees everything above and below that starts to reduce battery capacity. Finally the flow of electricity generates heat, heat increases resistance, increased resistance causes increased electricity usage as it takes more power just to flow through the system let alone actually do work. In other words electricity looses range exponentially faster when loaded than a ice engine because while the work needed to move the load is the same, the parasitic losses from friction, heat, ect grow exponentially as the vehicle is loaded down. Meanwhile a semi empty vs fully loaded only sees about a .5 mpg decrease as the system itself doesn't use extra energy to function

Keith Colter (not verified)    August 17, 2022 - 9:22AM

There are so many mis-spellings in this post and bad grammar....was it written by a bot? Or someone in a foreign land? Not good....

Alex Rubin (not verified)    August 17, 2022 - 9:35AM

Totally wrong not 7c per kw more likely 18to 34c per kwh .please be honest about facts. Yes it's will be better and cheapest butt Nothing close to 7c !!!NO ONE PAYS 7C PER KWH. Fact check better next time.

Justda Facts (not verified)    August 17, 2022 - 10:13AM

It's all just "smoke and mirrors" from the Liberal Greenies who are perpetuating this worldwide hoax. Costs of operation for EVs will skyrocket in the future... As demand for electricity and battery materials increases, so will prices, just like fossil fuels. Tires for EVs cost substantially more, wear out faster, and the microscopic rubber particles pollute the air and water more than ICE vehicles.
And, let not anyone forget the costs of battery replacement, disposal, and additional firefighting equipment needed to extinguish those horrific battery fires.
EVs are a scam!!!

John Jason Chun (not verified)    August 17, 2022 - 10:38AM

Item $cost/Change 100k

2015Ram2500Cummins 4dr 4x4 Diesel 6speed

Fuel $1.25-3.60 20mpg 7-18k
Recycled Contract $2.00

Oil+filter $100/10k. 1k

Fuel filters $20/10sets 200
Bulk purchased 18sets

Trans & transfer Case. 200
2.5gallons x 3per100k

Diff 3x 5qt $5qt. 125
Radiator 6gallons. 125
Power steering. 75
Wipers 4x. 75
Wipers fluid. 25

Tires 33k $250set. 750
New Take offs Transforce
275-70-18 10ply

Fuel filter External tank 50
Brake pads. 200
Carwash. 100
FanBelt+ radiator hoses 150

Air filter kn wash. 25
Clutch $1k/300k. 333
Batteries $300/5yrs. 60

Insurance$2k x2. 4000
Registration $400x2. 800
Driving license $100x2. 200

Parts collection over years
$3000+cash at 80% off=
$15,000 return. Plus+

Deleted RAM system$1600 + Edge2 $200 +
4 wheel spacers $100+
Rustoleom paint $100=$2k
CERT emergency stuff $1k
Camper& assessories $1k
(Glocks PTRs Ar15sAmmo)
Above amortized costs
$7k cost over 500k=1.4c

Subtotal 100k= $20-30k
Cents Per mile total 20-30c✓

RETAIL CostAAA 40-65cents/mile

500k miles=$99to$150,000
8yr return monthy=$2-3k or
$200-300k saved vs Retail
FRUGAL & Resourceful

500,000 miles cost RAM
+$7k amortized SPARE parts stored in garage Nevada
+$99-150k 500k (5x100k)
+$30k truck cost
$130-180,000 5yrs CASH cost

Vs. Tesla 500,000miles
Car $99-125k
Registration insurance driver's license costs(same)8kyr. 40k
Tires 25sets @$2000. 50k
Electric10cents mile 50k
Wipers & fluids. 1k
WashWax$200/20k= 5k
2 battery packs $50k
Brake system repairs. 5k
Bearings with breaks. 2k
Annual inspection$500. 3k
Estimated sub total $350-401k
Estimate 70-80cents/mile

Vs. Est. 23-38cents RAM

Cost data was collected from the Tesla fleet and estimated for 5-years and 60,000 miles
Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus: $0.55 per mile

500,000 Miles Total Costs=
Tesla 500k cost. $350-400k
RamCASHCost $130-180k

John saved CASH. $220-220k

Scott C Yanover (not verified)    August 17, 2022 - 12:44PM

You forgot to mention that tires on e-cars and trucks wear out faster than regular cars and trucks because the e cars and trucks weigh more. Also, the cost to replace a battery can be $10K plus. It is advertised that the average battery will last 10 years, this remains to be seen.

Tim (not verified)    August 18, 2022 - 9:33AM

In reply to by Scott C Yanover (not verified)

Both diesel and electric trucks have a max weight of 80,000 pounds, so tire wear should be similar.

"It is advertised that the average battery will last 10 years."

Who advertised that? I can only assume it was an oil company or a company selling non-electric vehicles. Electric car batteries are expected to outlast the car's that come with them. Past 20 years, corrosion becomes a risk. Electric semis might be able to wear out the batteries in 10 years, but only if they're driven enough to consume a million dollars of fuel in a diesel truck. Then just take a part of the fuel savings and buy a new truck.

Scott (not verified)    August 17, 2022 - 12:58PM

I'm just wondering what the cost of the electric semis batteries would be over its lifetime compared to the cost of a diesel semi and it's lifetime. How many miles will an electric semi be able to go before it has to replace its batteries. If batteries are expensive this could easily end up costing you more than a diesel semi several times over during it's lifetime.

Tim (not verified)    August 18, 2022 - 9:23AM

In reply to by Scott (not verified)

Modern lithium batteries can endure several thousand cycles. In a truck with 500 miles of range, a million miles is 2000 cycles. Even then, it just runs with reduced range. The bigger problem with batteries is the corrosion that destroys them over time. This will be a problem for 20+ year old trucks. Diesel trucks might have a cost advantage for long haul trucks that are driven less than 25,000 miles a year, but I don't think there are many trucks like that.

Jose maltos (not verified)    August 17, 2022 - 1:03PM

What is price of truck????
How heavy is truck???
Will it cause less damage to roadway!!!
Who will pay for it so??

Brandon (not verified)    August 17, 2022 - 2:00PM

In the end the public is going to get hurt. How much waste and carbon you think it takes to build one of those. Charging will take long affecting how long a driver can really drive. This will be a more local truck only. 500 miles of range is too unrealistic more like 150 miles of range tops 200 miles. Plus the electrical grid is already stressed and not all electricity is made by renewable ways. This will only make electricity go up more.

Kevin (not verified)    August 17, 2022 - 3:53PM

Funny how you didn't consider that there is yet to be a road tax on electric vehicles or the fact that the semi would be extremely ineffective due to having a heavier ground weight in general. Semi's have maximum weight capacity and even with the range, it means less materia transported per truck just due to sheer weight. More trucks built= higher initial production cost. It's not viable until new battery tech is feasible.

Windbourne (not verified)    August 17, 2022 - 5:13PM

Several issues:
1) road taxes were not included. Politicians WILL be adding that in 1 way or another. Still, that will be far less than diesel.
2) parallel Systems is in testing/trials right now. By end of 2023, they will likely be approved. HUGE change coming in the long distance trucking.

Cliff Rutherford (not verified)    August 17, 2022 - 8:24PM

Sure it's cheap, fElon Musk feeds the unicorns extra pixie dust just before they 'ship' their 'trucks' (next year).

Nathaniel (not verified)    August 18, 2022 - 8:27AM

It is not true that electric vehicles are "a source of clean energy". They USE energy, they don't produce it. Furthermore, the source used to charge the vehicle could be either clean or dirty. Let's not get so excited about EVs that we forget where energy comes from.

Logan e (not verified)    August 18, 2022 - 11:02AM

I mean yeah but what's the total range on a charge we used 200mi as an example but if that's a charge range that's gonna suck, gonna take forever to ship anything.and yeah what we doin about Tesla batteries recycling or how much maintenance on them compared to a diesel would be. And idk if anyone noticed but we hit an energy crisis this summer in the states, and just my electric bill tripled so I've got no intention of switching anytime soon cause I don't think where I live it would have been any cheaper to drive an electric car. And have any of you looked into battery replacement costs for the Tesla?

John Tennent (not verified)    August 18, 2022 - 11:19AM

Electricity comes mainly from cold and nuclear and now that there's enough some solar panel the windmills never make enough is simply not enough when to go against their cost but all that together is what it takes to produce electricity now how does these elected to nuclear power how do they get the coal power what are the coal come from and the sunlight how is all this stuff done how are the sunlight solar panel stuff put in that bought by truck coal delivered to the from the coal mine to the electrical places my truck nuclear either made on sale site or materials about in my truck so it's going to take electric trucks to produce electricity to make the electricity for the trucks to go up and down the road condemning diesel which comes from the Earth is the second most abundant source of liquid in the world next to water and all this is supposed to save the planet somewhere another let's just see what happens