Red Tesla Model 3

Juiced: the electrical vehicle takeover

According to Wards intelligence we will have 142 total hybrid, electric, and fuel cell vehicle models by 2020. The addition of popular consumer vehicle options such as SUVs and Trucks turned electric could multiply the adoption rate of electric vehicles. Many consumers may hold out on going electric until there is a comparable vehicle model such as an electric truck or SUV to replace them.

Legacy manufactures finally noticed electrical vehicles when the Tesla Model 3 destroyed all mid- size luxury vehicle sales in its first full year of production.

Up for debate is not when electric vehicles will take over the US market, but when. Some say the maximum number of gasoline vehicle production has already peaked.

It becomes amazing when you drive electric just how much we have come been brainwashed to produce, use, and drive electric vehicles. Terms like “give it the gas” to “drop the hammer,” will give way to “Juice it.” Then one will wonder why in a gas vehicle you have to use the brake pedal and hold it down to come to a stop and keep it there. Once drivers realize 300 mile plus range is more than adequate with highway fast charging, the (ICE) Internal Combustible Engine vehicle could go the way of the VHS. How many people would want to purchase a gasoline powered cell phone, even if it was smaller, performed better, or lasted longer between fill ups?

Then comes the maintenance when every 5000-6000 miles in the electrical vehicle you rotate the tires, not the laundry list of gas and diesel vehicle maintenance items.

The vehicle aftermarket will require a complete overhaul. The shops not concentrating on vehicle brake and suspension upgrades could completely fade away.

Gasoline and Diesel tax could increase to further incentivize the change to electrical vehicles, at least until we have 90% adoption rate. How long do you think it will take until electric vehicles hold at least 50% of the market place, 5 years?

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"Legacy manufactures finally noticed electrical vehicles when the Tesla Model 3 destroyed all mid- size luxury vehicle sales in its first full year of production." This is a total lie - legacy automakers Nissan and GM beat the Model 3 to market and are far more affordable than the Model 3. The sales of the Model 3 in its first year of production were not sales at all - those sales occurred over a two and a half year period andthus cannot be presented as a single year's sales. Notice the collapse of Model 3 sales int he past month. Legacy automakers had ben developing electric cars more thana year befre the Model 3 even went into production, How about assigning writers to these articles who know what's going on?
Quote: "Gasoline and Diesel tax could increase to further incentivize the change to electrical vehicles, at least until we have 90% adoption rate." What a ridiculous statement/concept. Forcing drivers to do someone's bidding, and not accepting the results of a free market.
China is able to move uniformly and swiftly because they don't have an established petroleum infrastructure like we do in the U.S. and Europe. The petroleum industry makes billions of dollars every year, and you can bet that they are not going to give that up without a fight. On the other hand having a big potential growth in electricity use would be a big money maker for electric companies, and solar industries. Currently, despite the success of Tesla and the addition of electric cars by some major automakers, EVs only make up 2% of new cars sold, and BEVs are less than half of that number. So from the oil companies point of view, BEVs are simply not a real threat today to their profits. Remember, regular hybrids and PHEVs still use gas (even though it is FAR less). Also take note that the two best selling vehicles in the U.S. today are Ford and Chevy trucks. But with GM, VW, and others making claims to want to produce a significant number of BEVs over the next few years, it probably has the attention of Big Oil now, if only that they may lose some small portion of their current fuel sales. I think that it will be a significant gain if we see BEVs comprising 10% of new vehicle sales. And I am guessing that number will be reached in the next 5 years. But unless there is some huge breakthrough in battery technology that makes them much cheaper, lighter, smaller, and less toxic to dispose, I do not see 50% EV market share coming any time soon. Still, I do believe in innovation. And the good news is that increased interest in EVs around the world drives competition and innovation. But I am waiting to see EV sales actually pass 10% of the new vehicle market before I start to make any bold predictions about having a dominant EV future. It is still a David (EV) and Goliath (oil) world out there today, so I wouldn't let your dreams and enthusiasm get ahead of reality until something big changes the situation.
I'll go on the record and say that EVs will make up a substantial part of the luxury car business in 2024 (five years out). Perhaps 50%. However, all forms of EVs, EREVs, PHEVs, BEVs, excluding liquid-fuel hybrids with no plug, will only make up about 5% of the total US new passenger sales in five years. Now head on over to our previous story and put in your predictions for just this calendar year for the U.S. EV market. Go on the record and see how well you do after this year ends. Here is the story link (to cut and paste)