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Elon Musk Shares That FSD Take Rate Is Much Higher Than 2%, As Was Reported Incorrectly

Elon Musk just shared that the take rate of FSD is much higher than 2% - that 2% being the number that was reported by a survey, now shown to be incorrect by Elon Musk.

FSD Take Rate Much Higher Than 2%

According to Electrek, the take rate for FSD after the 30-day free trial was a mere 2%. Electrek reported the following:

Only 2% of Tesla Full Self-Driving trial users end up buying it, credit card data show.

Electrek said it was according to the credit card data, but I couldn't find what credit card data specifically they were referring too...

Elon Musk responded on X to this sharing the following statement:

I don’t comment on everything, as sometimes I don’t see it and commenting on everything makes it easy to fish for information.

The take rate is much higher than 2%. Please.

It seems pretty far-fetched that the FSD conversion rate could be found from credit card data. Whole Mars Catalog says the following about Fred Lambert from Electrek and his statement about FSD:

Fred publishing incorrect information again.

There is no way you could find the conversion rate from credit card data. There would be no way to know who got a trial. This data is most likely from email receipt analysis of around 3,000 people.

I also believe that 2% is underestimating what the conversion rate will be 30 days after the free trial ends for everyone. It doesn’t match with other polling I’ve seen.

But until Elon Musk or Tesla give some additional color on conversion rates, everyone will be accepting 2% as fact when in reality this is just an estimate.

Conversion has a wide time frame. Anyone after the free trial can subscribe, whether it is the day after or even a year from now. To see true conversion, you can't just take a snapshot in time - you have to look over time. In addition to that, you have to trust Elon Musk and Tesla above anything else when it comes to data about Tesla.

You May Also Like: I Drove A Gas Car Today, For The First Time In Over A Year And A Half, After Driving My Tesla: It Was Like Going Back To A Horse And Buggy

What Does "Much Higher" Mean?

Of course, any negative headline about Tesla, whether it is about the stock going down, an accident with a Tesla car, sharing FUD about Tesla, such as a 2% FSD take rate, or something negative about Elon Musk, is going to generate a lot of attention - so I understand why it gets written.

Of course, saying much higher likely means more than 3 or 4 percent, but does it mean 10% or 15% or higher? That's something we won't know until future Tesla earnings calls.

FSD is very good right now, but not perfect. If it makes a mistake at all, it's going to be looked at with a magnifying glass. It needs to get to the point where it's superior to human driving and obvious when you use it.

That's the first step for FSD. The second is being able to add your car to the Tesla robotaxi network and being able to make money from letting your car be a robotaxi.

Once these two things happen, the take rate will skyrocket - easily 50% or higher in my opinion. It will also increase the value of all Tesla vehicles dramatically.

Nobody sees this coming. Tesla vehicles will become incredibly valuable - even old used Tesla's that can run FSD and be a robotaxi.

For Further Reading: I'm Paying $99 A Month For Tesla's FSD - It Feels Like Having An Invisible Chauffeur. Can It Really Drive Everywhere and Is It Worth It?

What do you think about the statement from Electrek about FSD having a 2% take rate after the free trial?

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Hi! I'm Jeremy Noel Johnson, and I am a Tesla investor and supporter and own a 2022 Model 3 RWD EV and I don't have range anxiety :). I enjoy bringing you breaking Tesla news as well as anything about Tesla or other EV companies I can find, like Aptera. Other interests of mine are AI, Tesla Energy and the Tesla Bot! You can follow me on X.COM or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow my Tesla and EV news coverage.

Image Credit/Reference: Electrek