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Tesla's Q1 Production and Deliveries are a Pivotal Moment
Tesla released their production and delivery numbers for Q1, 2022. They produced about 305,000 and delivered about 310,000. If we compare this with quarter Q4, 2021, it's about a 1% increase, quarter over quarter. If you compare Q1, 2021 to Q1, 2022, it's about a 68% increase year over year.
This isn't surprising to those following Tesla, but there are some very impressive things about this. Tesla did not introduce any new giga factories during this time. The 68 increase came from only existing factories. They pushed more units through what they already had.
Q1 of each year is usually the weakest quarter for any auto maker. Q1, 2021 will be the lowest quarter for auto makers and the same with Q2, 2022. The fact that Tesla posted a 1% increase from Q4, 2021, is highly impressive.
Next, we'll take a look at other auto makers results, so we can compare them with Tesla.
Other Auto Makers Results
From Investors.com, we can see the following results from Q1, 2021 to Q1, 2022:
Toyota is down 15%
GM is down 20%
Ford is down 17%
Stellantis is down 13%
Honda is down 23%
Investors.com is a website with predictions from analysts, along with reported figures from the actual auto makers.
These results are likely to be similar in other markets as well. These companies are probably going to be flat or negative, year over year. The big takeaway is that these auto makers are going to be down again in Q1, 2023.
If we compare these results to Tesla, Tesla is up 68% globally. Tesla has done this with an about week shut down in Giga Shanghai, which cost Tesla about 14,000 produced vehicles. Tesla is going to have the same challenges as other auto makers.
Other car companies besides Tesla, are going to have a larger portion of parts from other suppliers, yet Tesla is still able to grow year over year. Tesla is able to grow regardless of the difficulties being faced - including difficulties shared across other auto makers.
If there were no shut downs in Giga Shanghai, and Giga Berlin and Giga Texas were going at full production, let's see what things might look like:
* A maximum capacity of Fremont and Shanghai at 340,000 per quarter.
* A maximum capacity of Giga Berlin and Giga Texas at 680,000 per quarter.
Tesla's true maximum capacity today, once Berlin and Austin are ramped, is about 682,000 per quarter, or 2,720,000 per year. This could happen in about a year. The capacity is already built in building area to make this happen.
Tesla also happens to make much more per vehicle than other auto makers. This is a really big picture takeaway from Q1, 2022. This pivotal moment is that other auto makers are struggling to grow and are in fact, shrinking. There is a demand cliff for other auto makers. As quarters go on, I expect we'll see Tesla continue to rocket up deliveries, and we'll see other auto makers stay flat or go down.
Do you think other auto makers will be able to grow, or will they continue to go down? Will Tesla be able to maintain yearly growth at 68%, 70%, 80% or more?
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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.
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