Model 3 Standard Range Over Time
To understand the Tesla Model 3 range, you must look at its history and growth over time. This can be used to predict the future pretty accurately. Tesla is a company that makes continuous improvements with its products and increasing range is one of those improvements. Let's use caranddriver.com as a source to look at ranges over time.
A Tesla Model 3 standard range vehicle from 2018 has about 220 miles of EPA range. This was the first version of this vehicle that Tesla made and there has been improvements over time to this. A 2019 version of the standard range Model 3 also has about 240 miles of range.
As you get to 2020, the standard range version of the Model 3 gets to about 250 miles of range. You can see that this is slowly increasing over time. The 2021 version of the Model 3 standard range gets about 263 miles.
Today, with a 2022 Model 3 standard range RWD with LFP batteries, you start off with 272 miles of range. Over five years of time, the range has increased from 220 miles to 272 miles of range with the most efficient tires you can get.
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Future of the Model 3 Range
This means that Tesla has improved range over 5 years by about 20%. If you use this calculation over the next 5 years, you will get a Tesla Model 3 standard range of about 326 miles, which is getting close to a longe range version of the Model 3 today.
What's interesting about this is that at about 300 miles of range, you start to equal what you can get in a standard equivalent gas car. As the range continues to go up and up, it just becomes more economical to get an electric vehicle.
I bought a 2022 Model 3 RWD standard range vehicle in August of 2022. After 5,000 miles, it still has most of its range with about a 1% degradation. I expect over time the vehicle to lose about 10% to 15% of its total range while driving it.
If the 20% improvement in range continues to happen, then after 10 years, the Model 3 standard range should have an LFP battery with about 391 miles of range. If Tesla allows me to replace my battery relatively cheaply after 10 years, and my car is in good shape, I will get a new battery with this updated range. We'll see if it is possible then.
Would you get a Model 3 standard range? Is 326 miles of range likely in the next 5 years? What about 391 miles of range in 10 years?
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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.