Tesla looks ready to beat its own numbers year after year. Last 2021, the Austin firm ended the year with more than 930,000 units registered, very close to the long-awaited million units. During the first 6 months of 2022, they already exceeded 500,000 units in a period in which 3 of their Gigafactories (Berlin, Texas and Shanghai) were not actually fully operational, - for a large part of the quarter - for many different reasons. That is why Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry has stated that, after studying the company's figures and its possibilities, only in the fourth quarter of 2022 Tesla could reach the figure of 500,000 electric car deliveries.
Chowdhry is an analyst specialized in the brand manufacturing area; he regularly visits Tesla Gigafactories in order to monitor their production and deliveries, in great detail. These visits are normally used to point out problems or possible inconveniences in its productive division in order to favor the interests of the firm through an external, expert and independent view.
During his recent visit to the original Tesla Fremont plant, Chowdhry stated that the estimate of delivering 500,000 electric cars could become true in the fourth quarter of this year, 2022; although for the time being, even the number of production and deliveries that will be actually reached in the third quarter this year is unknown.
However, Chowdhry is not the only analyst who has reached this kind of conclusion, since George Gianarikas, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity, has also specified something very similar. Among the reasons that would lead to reaching the magical figure of 500,000 units delivered in a single quarter, analysts point out that Tesla has greatly improved its production efficiency by 10% as compared to the previous quarter; to which the fact of having new work shifts is added, as well as production during weekends and holidays, and also a sharp increase in registrations of the new Tesla Model S Plaid.
Teslarati has published the data referring to the estimates released by Trip Chowdhry himself. The analyst, after verifying the detailed data of Tesla's 4 current Gigafactories, breaks down the quarterly production into the following: Fremont: 145,000 EV units; Giga Shanghai: 246,000 EV units; Giga Berlin: 60,000 EV units; Giga Texas: 60,000 EV units.
The sum of all 4 Gigafactories makes up a total of 511,000 units planned for the fourth quarter of 2022. Putting these figures in context, Tesla delivered approximately 310,000 electric cars in the first quarter and around 255,000 during the second quarter; both add up to 565,000 electric vehicles. The firm's plans speak of being able to end the year with more than 1.5 million deliveries, and even very closely approach 2 million cars.
The analyst concluded - based on his data - that Tesla's third quarter could end with a total of 424,000 registered cars, thus reaching a million and a half units delivered in 2022. Likewise, with all the forecasts in its favor, Tesla will exceed the long-awaited 2022 figure of one million units, something that could even be carried out once the current third quarter ends.
All images courtesy of Tesla Inc.
Nico Caballero is the VP of Finance of Cogency Power, specializing in solar energy. He also holds a Diploma in Electric Cars from Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, and enjoys doing research about Tesla and EV batteries. He can be reached at @NicoTorqueNews on Twitter. Nico covers Tesla and electric vehicle latest happenings at Torque News.