Tesla Model 3 and Model Y Growth and Deliveries by Quarter
Here's a chart showing global deliveries of Tesla's 2 top-selling vehicles (2 of the Top 3 selling premium vehicles in the U.S.).
I'm not forecasting much Model 3 sales growth compared to Model Y-- which should grow significantly this year with the ramp in China.
— James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) June 13, 2021
Tesla Model 3 Deliveries Over Time
There were 8,182 Model 3 vehicles sold in Q1 of 2018. In the last quarter (Q1, 2021), there were 121,200 Model 3 vehicles sold. That's close to a 15 times increase in volume of production of the Model 3 in 3 years!
If Tesla is able to somehow keep up that pace of growth, in Q1 of 2024, there would be nearly 1.8 million Model 3 vehicles sold and delivered. I'm not sure if Tesla will invest that much in the Model 3, but I definitely believe in their ability to improve manufacturing and to find efficient ways to produce vehicles better than they do now.
Tesla's Model Y Deliveries Over Time
The Model Y was introduced in Q1, 2020, and in that quarter, Tesla sold 2,166 Model Y vehicles. In just 1 year after that, Tesla delivered 61,647 Model Y vehicles. That is a nearly 28.5 times increase in the volume of Model Y deliveries in just 1 year!
Were Tesla able to keep up that pace of growth, In Q1 of 2022, there would be about 1.75 million Model Y vehicles sold and delivered. I'm not sure Tesla is going to be able to ramp that much in 1 year, but knowing Elon Musk, anything is possible. Instead, I would predict that Q1, 2022 would see around 150,000 Model Y vehicles delivered.
Which Vehicle Will Sell More Over Time?
Since the Model Y has seen a 28.5 times increase in just a year -vs- the Model 3 which has had a near 15 times increase in three years, I would make the bet that the Model Y is going to be the better selling vehicle over time. It is clear that Tesla is prioritizing the Model Y and that customer demand for it is high.
Once Tesla creates its "Model 2", and if it finds a very efficient way to manufacture that, I believe that Model 2 will see an even greater multiple over the course of a year than the Model Y, perhaps a 100 times increase!
It's clear the Model 3 and Model Y will continue to sell as the future goes on, but which one will sell more? Will it be the Model 3 or Model Y? Will the forecasts James put for Q2-Q4 of 2021 end happening as predicted?
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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn and Instagram to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.