At the latest ONS conference, Elon Musk made some stunning predictions about the future and you'll be astonished where Tesla will be in 2030.
What are the steps to get to sustainable energy and what are the limiting factors. How can these be accelerated? Elon Musk will also likely announce a new giga factory this year. He also shared where he thinks electric vehicles will be in 2030 - about 50% of new cars will be electric then.
Elon Musk was asked about risk and he immediately made a joke about Twitter. He said that with information, people want to know if the information is accurate and representative of the whole picture and to be able to believe what they read and that it isn't too biased or to at least understand the bias. Social media should open source their algorithms on what information is shown and why. Elon believes in the free flow of ideas. He likes to err on the side of free speech within the boundaries of the law.
Elon Musk has been a great disruptor in technology and space. Elon Musk doesn't aim to disrupt just to do it. He thinks about what set of actions will lead to a better future. In order for humanity to have a compelling future, we must have a clear path to a sustainable energy future. He doesn't demonize oil and gas. This is necessary for civilization to function and thinks right now we need more oil and gas while moving as fast as we can to sustainable energy.
The three pillars to sustainable energy are the generation of sustainable energy (solar, wind, nuclear), battery storage, and electric vehicles. Ocean wind can also be an essential renewable resource.
The Future of Disruption
Prepare to be astonished. Elon Musk said in the next 10 to 15 years and that by 2030, half of new cars will be electric. That's just his best guess. By 2035, it might be 80 percent. He says it could even be higher than those numbers.
With this minimum threshold, if Elon Musk is right, and Tesla is selling 20 million vehicles by 2030, and Tesla's fleet is around 100 million, then what share of new vehicles in 2030 will Tesla have with 50% sold being electric? This assumes a 90 million yearly total being sold. This means that Tesla may have about half of the vehicle market in 2030. This is astonishing.
There will likely be challenges in the future, and in addition, by 2030 (and before it), consumers who are buying an ICE vehicle over an EV will be dealing with difficult economics. Especially when you get FSD and can have you car be a robotaxi in a few years.
Producing ICE vehicles in 2030 would be a big mistake as more and more infrastructure happens, including charging, and battery and power train technology continues to improve. ICE cars have no rate of improvement technologically.
The car industry is moving rapidly toward electric. Countries and states are making 0 emission mandates. Are there any worries with supply chains? One of the limiting factors is the rate at which one can grow battery production. This is lithium, cathodes, anodes with different materials. There takes a ton of processing to take the ore of metals into battery grade materials. That's the limiting factor.
Astonishing Factor #2
This is astonishing factor #2. Tesla has said they will address this limiting factor. In Master Plan Part 3, what are the steps for sustainable energy with limiting factors. He plans on finishing this in a couple months. The materials he mentioned are a big part of this. Raw materials aren't the problem - lithium, carbon, and iron are everywhere in the world. It's processing these materials that is the challenge. Tesla is most likely going to get involved in material processing for batteries. Master Plan Part 3 will most likely include Tesla having plans to process the raw materials for batteries at a large scale.
What can be done to accelerate this process? Tesla is trying to do it. He believes the world is already on track to reach 50% electric vehicles by 2030 even without any innovations. Tesla's Master Plan Part 3 will most likely try to increase this percentage even more. It could be 80% by 2030, especially with innovations.
There's no limiting functions. It's how many years will it take to process raw materials - turning ore into battery grade materials. That will set the pace of electric vehicles. This is an optimistic and positive message. Things are moving in a good direction and we can make things faster and better.
Tesla continues to invest in China and Europe with giga factories, and there will most likely be an announcement of a new giga factory this year. Tesla is also an AI company and Elon Musk is a technologist. Elon Musk is focused on Starship getting to orbit and having the Tesla car being able to do full self-driving.
What do you think of Tesla and the potential of Master Plan Part 3? Will it be 50% or 80% of new cars as electric vehicles in 2030?
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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.