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More Positives Than Negatives For Tesla
Tesla has many more positives than negatives coming in 2022. In fact, the only negative I can think of for 2022 besides Elon possibly selling more stock (which it doesn't look like he will now), is interest rates rising from the FED.
Tesla Catalysts for 2022
1: Elon Will Be Done Selling Stock Before 2021 Ends
Elon Musk is at about 92% of total stock sales now to reach his 10% target of selling stock since his infamous Twitter poll - both Gary Black and Dave Lee, two well known Tesla investors have done the exact math on this.
This will put less pressure on Tesla stock. After Elon is done selling his millions of shares, that selling pressure goes away, and the only selling will be people who decide to just sell Tesla stock - though I'm not sure why they would decide to do that with so many positive catalysts ahead.
2: Tesla Will Report on Q4, 2021 on 1/26/2022 - It Will Be a Blowout Quarter
Tesla will report on Q4 deliveries on Sunday, January 2nd, 2022 and that will be a nice way to start the new year. We think that the delivery numbers are going to blow away estimates - especially since the EV tax credit did not get passed this year.
3: Berlin and Austin Will Open in January, 2022
Giga Berlin and Giga Texas are set to start producing cars in 2022. Barring some unforeseen and very unfortunate circumstances, we should start to see the first cars delivered to customers in January, 2022.
I'm not worried about Giga Texas having any delays, but Giga Berlin has been a giant mound of red tape and delays. Elon was hoping to start delivering cars in the summer of 2021 - about 5 to 6 months ago, but delays and paperwork from organizations in Germany has derailed this.
I do think the delays for Giga Berlin will end eventually, but if Giga Berlin doesn't start delivering cars in January of 2022, I won't be surprised. It won't matter. Even if it takes until the middle of 2022 for Giga Berlin to be approved, Tesla will deliver a huge number of vehicles in 2022.
4: Tesla Will Receive Investment Grade Upgrade Around Feb. 2022
Around October 22, 2021, the S&P Global Ratings boosted Tesla's credit rating to BB+. The highest rating one can get is AAA, and a rating of BBB- puts a company in investment grade, which is considered strong.
This boost was because Tesla has a ton of free cash flow and very little debt compared to cash flow and cash on hand. Tesla has had strong EBITDA margins as well.
The S&P agency said it would consider an upgrade to an investment grade rating on Tesla if Tesla stays on a trajectory to sustain automotive EBITDA margins above 18% ex. regulatory credits.
5: The $8K EV Credit Still May Pass In Mar. 2022
Even though the EV tax credit didn't pass this year (2021), there is still a good chance the EV tax credit will pass next year (hopefully without the Union subsidy), and that will be good for Tesla, allowing people to buy a Tesla vehicle for $8,000 less than the purchase price.
6: Shanghai Will Expand Throughout 2022
Giga Shanghai, which has a run rate that could reach 1 million vehicles in 2022. Tesla continues to expand the factory at Shanghai, China, and by the end of 2022, we think it will have an annual capacity greater than all of Tesla's production in 2021! That's a huge positive catalyst!
7: 4680 Batteries Will Scale Production in 2nd Half of 2022
Tesla will scale the 4680 batteries in 2022. These batteries are bigger, easier to produce, easier to assemble and attach to the vehicle, and will help increase Tesla's margin on selling its vehicles.
If you watch Tesla Battery Day in 2020, you'll see that the main goal of the 4680 batteries was to drive down costs and increase efficiency.
8: Tesla Cybertruck Launches 2nd Half of 2022
The Tesla Cybertruck will be a one-of-a-kind vehicle unlike any other. In fact, Elon Musk has said that it will have post apocalyptic features.
The feature I'm most looking forward to is that it will have solar panels that will charge the truck while driving, or while parked. There's a plethora of other features and add-ons that will likely come with the Cybertruck.
Oh, and it will be able to drive diagonally like a crab.
9: Tesla May Announce Compact Car Date in 2022
Tesla may announce the Model 2 - or compact car in 2022 and that will be a huge catalyst. I would love to see an event toward the end of 2022 that is the compact car unveiling - kind of like how Elon Musk did the Cybertruck unveil.
The Model 2 will truly be the end of all other EVs and ICE vehicles.
$TSLA catalysts - 12/211/ CEO 4Q sales end Dec2/ 4Q vols (1/3), EPS (1/26) Jan3/ Berlin/Austin open Jan4/ Inv Grade Upgrade Feb5/ Biden $8K EV credit Mar6/ Shanghai expansion F’22 2Q7/ 4680 scale product’n F’22 2H8/ CyTruck launch F’22 2H9/ Compact launch F’23$1,400 PT— Gary Black (@garyblack00) December 21, 2021
There is currently a $1,400 price target for the next 6 to 12 months from Gary Black, a well known investor in Tesla and futuristic/innovative companies.
Do you think Tesla will reach $1,400 or more in the next 6 to 12 months? How high will Tesla stock go in 2022?
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Jeremy Johnson is a Tesla investor and supporter. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. Since then, he's become a Tesla bull, covering anything about Tesla he can find, while also dabbling in other electric vehicle companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow him on Twitter or LinkedIn to stay in touch and follow his Tesla news coverage on Torque News.
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