Half of the 2012 growth in global auto production will come from China, details
According to PwC, a Delaware based audit firm, the world's auto production sector is expected to grow 8.8% in 2012, after a 6.3% increase expected in 2011. The volume increase expected next year (6.7 million units for a total production of 82.7 million) will account for 60% in emerging Asia, against 44% in 2011.
"For the first time in history, the number of vehicles produced by emerging markets will be greater than the number of vehicles produced by mature markets," said PwC's study. The audit company believes that this movement will be dominant in the coming years until 2017. About 57 percent of the global auto production during this period of time will come from the Asia Pacific region. This will include 38.6 percent growth in Chinese auto sector.
The reasoning is simple. In European Union the level of car ownership is 500 to 600 vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants. In China it's still 40 cars per 1,000 inhabitants. India is even lower: 16 cars per 1,000 inhabitants. If China is targeted with the same production rate, it will take nearly 30 years for China to have the same ownership levels as it is currently in Germany, which is 500 vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants, said Gerard Morin of PwC, during the press conference presenting the study.
The study believes Europe will contrast to this growth with stagnation. Morin said EU markets are mature and the car companies need replacement. Asia will come to replace the European mature auto markets.
PcW also said this that the new and improvement environmental standards may further encourage the growth of the auto industry in Asia.
Reference: Autofacts, PwC's automotive forecasting service.